Original Article
International Relations
Mohammad Taghi Ghezelsofla
Volume 1, Issue 4 , January 2024, Pages 1-38
Abstract
IntroductionHuman philosophy, in its most fundamental form, constitutes a profound examination and critique of human existence. This perspective has been inherently linked to politics since its inception. Political philosophy focuses on the notion of the good life from a normative and critical perspective. ...
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IntroductionHuman philosophy, in its most fundamental form, constitutes a profound examination and critique of human existence. This perspective has been inherently linked to politics since its inception. Political philosophy focuses on the notion of the good life from a normative and critical perspective. When evaluating the contemporary global landscape through this lens, it becomes evident that various dangers and crises have diverted societies from the ideals of a good life. Moreover, the prevailing global situation is alarming, particularly about health, ecological indicators, and standards of justice and peace. Numerous experts have expressed concern regarding escalating tensions, the fragmentation of the fragile global order, and the potential emergence of conflicts among nations. The events and developments of the past two decades underscore that human society exists in a state of continuous readiness, accompanied by a pervasive sense of anxious helplessness stemming from ongoing conflicts. Consequently, the central inquiry of this article is to identify the dangers and crises threatening global relations and to examine the role of political philosophy and international political theory in addressing these challenges. To respond to this inquiry, the article will reference specific examples of these dangers and crises, thereby illustrating the extent to which human society experiences ontological insecurity. Given that philosophy derives its significance from the prospect of effecting change in adverse conditions, its overarching objective is the realization of a happy and just society. It is evident, therefore, that philosophical discourse proposes a range of ideas and solutions aimed at achieving this vital goal. In the subsequent section, the article will delineate a set of solutions presented as foundational principles for a civilized society.Literature reviewAmartya Sen (2012) examines the rise of inequalities and growing frustrations within developing societies that appear to be excluded from the benefits of advancements in the global era, particularly in the realm of justice. As a result, over the past two to three decades, various movements and ideas have emerged to protest against this troubling situation.In his 2009 work, Habermas observes that in a globalized world with ineffective democratic systems, the best way to address significant global crises is to strengthen institutions grounded in communicative rationality. He advocates for fostering a culture of dialogue among various institutions, groups, and countries.In recent years, scholars like Kohler (1998), Samuel Bull (2002), Linklater (1992), Falk (2000), and Bauman (1994) have argued that embracing dialogic democracy is the most effective way to address global threats and the growing alignment of interests and objectives among countries.This article employs the traditional methodology of political science, which is anchored in the normative-critical method. Normative-critical political philosophy pertains to the exploration and application of moral concepts within the political context. This form of normative thought investigates the principles that are consistent with the notion of a "good life." In this sense, normative-critical thought offers a symbolic representation of a well-structured political system. In practical terms, the normative-critical approach to political philosophy endeavors to clearly articulate how individuals can attain the value preferences associated with a fulfilling life, including freedom, justice, fairness, and harmony, while maintaining a focus on the concept of the good life.DiscussionIt is essential to identify the indicators of the current crisis. Among the most significant and undeniable manifestations of the crises and challenges confronting humanity today are the following:Global Inequality:In the economic domain, the lingering effects of inequalities rooted in historical imperialism are evident. What is often referred to as the "Third World," including marginalized and developing regions, is currently grappling with structural issues in the context of globalization. These challenges encompass the persistence of closed political systems, the exacerbation of economic poverty, and the widening gaps between social classes.Instability in the Middle East:The Middle East has historically been a region marked by crisis and instability. According to one researcher, it is difficult to find a region in the world that is as beset by uncertainty, unrest, and insecurity as the countries of the Middle East. Currently, nineteen nations within this region are experiencing conflicts and internal crises.Post-Fordist Capitalism and the Continuation of the Crisis:The substantial financial recession that affected global markets from the late 2000s to the early 2010s underscored the inevitability of increased financial fragility. This post-Fordist era has been marked by a transition towards an environment characterized by volatility, emotional intensity, and "fluidity" in economic production, which has similarly impacted daily life. Consequently, these changes have led to heightened commodification, the deepening of alienation processes within most industrial societies, and a significant increase in life insecurity.Greenhouse warming and planetary emergency: Since the 1960s, numerous images depicting the state of the Earth's environment have generated a heightened sense of global insecurity.ConclusionIn light of the adverse consequences stemming from recent global developments, it is evident that a consensus founded on respect for diversity is imperative. This consensus can be fostered through the re-establishment of effective and constructive dialogue at the global level. Central to this dialogic governance should be the strategic objective that every society and every individual, irrespective of racial, linguistic, or ethnic backgrounds, is entitled to the following:- An economy that guarantees the material resources and public services essential for human dignity.- An emphasis on the responsibility for fostering well-being and happiness, moving beyond simplistic Benthamic utilitarianism.- A commitment to humane governance that ensures equality in status and opportunities for all.- A recognition of individuals' human rights and dignity, which should be upheld by political systems that support inclusive and participatory processes.- A recognition of the human rights and dignity of women.- A steadfast commitment to non-violence, accompanied by the belief that disputes at both national and international levels can be resolved through peaceful dialogue and tranquility.
Original Article
International Relations
Sajjad Sadeghi
Volume 1, Issue 4 , January 2024, Pages 39-80
Abstract
IntroductionAnalytical approaches and development-oriented research in International Relations (IR), particularly when a logical alignment and convergence emerge from prevailing attitudes toward the surrounding world, can help identify indicators that clarify scientific outcomes. The author’s studies ...
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IntroductionAnalytical approaches and development-oriented research in International Relations (IR), particularly when a logical alignment and convergence emerge from prevailing attitudes toward the surrounding world, can help identify indicators that clarify scientific outcomes. The author’s studies have revealed patterns in Iranian IR that suggest a reliable alignment. If expressed systematically, this alignment could serve as a conceptual lens for understanding today’s international system.The central research question of this study is:Is convergence and alignment visible in the attitudes of the Iranian IR toward the current international system, such that it can be formulated as a single, generalizable theory?Literature ReviewIn recent years, several politicians and analysts have raised the possibility of a Neo-Cold War. Following the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Kremlin repeatedly found itself on the verge of such a conflict, especially in situations where Moscow was perceived as being at a disadvantage compared to allied rivals. Notably, discussions of a Neo-Cold War are not limited to Russia’s territorial ambitions; similar debates have emerged regarding U.S.–China relations. A survey of the academic literature on Iranian IR concerning the Neo-Cold War reveals a limited number of works. Most analyses focus on Russian foreign policy or regional tensions in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Syria. None has proposed a hypothesis aimed at constructing a comprehensive theory of the Neo-Cold War. Similarly, English-language studies largely integrate events surrounding Russia and China, yet fail to present novel theoretical frameworks. Instead, researchers often treat contemporary tensions as analogous to the Cold War of the 20th century, suggesting the potential for a Neo-Cold War in the international system.MethodologyThis study employs Constructive Grounded Theory as its primary research method, deemed appropriate for generating a context-sensitive theoretical framework grounded in empirical evidence. The research corpus consisted of 1,500 Persian-language articles relevant to Iranian perspectives on international relations.Articles were analyzed using Categorical Content Analysis, guided by predefined theoretical keywords. The analysis was conducted in two stages:Human expert coding – initial qualitative assessment by subject-matter experts.Computer-assisted coding – verification and enhancement of coding accuracy using specialized software.The coding process followed the three-stage grounded theory approach:Open coding – identifying key concepts and categories emerging from the data.Axial coding – examining relationships between categories and subcategories.Selective coding – integrating categories to construct a coherent theoretical model.This method allowed the systematic extraction of recurring assumptions, patterns, and principles underlying Iranian IR thought.Research FindingsThe analysis of the reviewed corpus revealed that Iranian perspectives on the current international system (IS) are characterized by the following core assumptions:Primacy of the state: States are considered the principal actors in the current IS.Acknowledgment of anarchy: Recognition of the anarchic nature of the international environment.Application of a realism paradigm, interpreted with a native understanding of IR concepts, including:Self-help: Achieved through economic interdependence and, when necessary, resorting to unconventional weapons.Deterrence: Exercised via soft power threats targeting vital interests and/or through hard power measures.Security dilemma: Any increase in the power or capabilities of an actor or bloc, even without aggressive intent, provokes reactions from others.Great powers tend to secure national interests and maintain the status quo, often exerting negative influence on international events. Hegemony: Skepticism toward the sustainability of hegemony, with emphasis on the decline of dominant powers. International organizations: Viewed as minimally effective, primarily supporting the maintenance of the status quo. International law: Considered selectively enforced and largely ineffective, serving the interests of status quo actors. These findings highlight a coherent alignment in Iranian IR thought, emphasizing realist principles while incorporating a culturally and contextually informed understanding of international relations.ResultsThe synthesis of the research findings leads to the formulation of an “Iranian theory on the balance of power arising from the Neo-Cold War.” According to this theory, the dynamics of the current international system (IS) can be analyzed through a balance-of-power framework in the post-Cold War era. This framework is shaped by competition between two primary groups of actors: Status quo actors – a united bloc benefiting from the existing system, referred to as protectors and supporters of the status quo. Revisionist actors – those dissatisfied with the current system, seeking either partial or fundamental transformation of the status quo. In practice, the balance-of-power mechanism functions as follows: Revisionist actors take individual or coordinated steps to create disorder, challenging the existing arrangements. Status quo actors respond by attempting to contain or mitigate disorder, aiming to preserve systemic stability. These interactions often lead to temporary concessions from the status quo, after which conditions return to equilibrium. Because the international system is characterized by an anarchic structure, revisionist actors typically form temporary coalitions and strategic alliances with one another, guided by pragmatic, realism-informed strategies. If revisionist actors overcome the limitations of temporary alliances and achieve long-term unity, the IS may transition into a new bipolar structure, resembling a Neo-Cold War order. Such a transformation would mark the definitive end of the post-Cold War era. Regarding Iran’s position in this framework, the country’s pragmatic “look to the East” policy and ongoing efforts to join strategic alliances such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization place it among the actors dissatisfied with the status quo. These actions reflect a deliberate attempt to reform or partially transform the international system, positioning Iran as a revisionist actor within the emerging balance-of-power dynamics.
Original Article
International Relations
Gholamali Chegenizadeh; Mohammad Zare
Volume 1, Issue 4 , January 2024, Pages 81-122
Abstract
Research Problem and Literature ReviewThe Asian order has seen a complete cycle of transformation in the form of the rise and fall of regional powers in the past two hundred years, and it seems that with the "resurgence" of China, especially since the end of the 1990s, it has again become susceptible ...
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Research Problem and Literature ReviewThe Asian order has seen a complete cycle of transformation in the form of the rise and fall of regional powers in the past two hundred years, and it seems that with the "resurgence" of China, especially since the end of the 1990s, it has again become susceptible to a new paradigm shift with China as the driving force, and the question of the outcome and manner of this transition has become the most important question today, both among Asian actors and US allies, and among other key players in international politics. In other words, the international system is in the "waiting" stage for a new strategic birth, and Asia is also "waiting" for a new redistribution of power, with China as the center and center. Although it seems that there is still a long way to go before this systemic transition led by China in Asia and the international system is finalized, the reality is that a kind of "sensitivity" and "concern" has arisen among all Asian players regarding this transformation. Some of these players are in the preliminary stages of determining strategy and tactics towards this new reality, some have finalized their choices, and some are redefining their past choices towards China. China’s rise to power and how regional and supra-regional powers react to this rise have placed the Asian order and its future at a new point of “ambiguity” and “uncertainty,” and have made it necessary to understand the developments that have taken place in this order and its future. Purpose of the ResearchThis article attempts to explore the history of the last 70 years of some strategic developments in India, especially the emphasis on the construction and continuation of the concept of "Look East Policy" in 1992 to date and its transformation into a policy of "Act east policy" in 2014, and to examine and carefully consider the possibility of better understanding and perceiving the existing competitions between Asian powers and actors, the evolution of policies and strategies to contain them against each other, as well as the nature and direction of the future Asian order.MethodologyThe method used in this article is a hybrid method, meaning the simultaneous use of the historical method and its completion with the descriptive-analytical method. In other words, this research has attempted to extract the required information and data by exploring the historical context of India's Look East (East and Southeast Asia) behavior and policy since independence and the continuity and developments of this grand strategy through reference to books and articles, documents, and internet resources. By analyzing the available resources, the hypothesis of this research can be examined, and the desired results can be achieved.Results & DiscussionChina's rise to power and the increase in its national capacities in Asia have caused China's role to change and transition from a "participating" actor in Asian developments to a "shaping" actor and power in Asian developments. In other words, China has transformed from a situation that could be called "reluctant realism," focused on economic growth and a narrow definition of national security and defense, to an "active realism" with a high desire and enthusiasm for creating "change." A transition that, according to many thinkers in international relations, will be not only the most important issue in international politics but also the most important driving force affecting the future of the Asian order, both in terms of security and economic dimensions. With China's increasing capabilities and efforts to become a regional power, India and Narendra Modi in 2014 transformed the Look East policy of the 1990s, which was mainly economic, into the policy and strategy of "Active Orientalism", a strategy that, in addition to paying attention and focusing on economic dimensions, also acquired important political and strategic dimensions to better contain China.Conclusions Since 1992, by adopting the "Look East" policy, India has gradually prepared itself for playing an important regional role and preventing strategic surprise by China. Following this, the emergence of obstacles and challenges to the policy led to a renewed effort to strengthen the previous path. This was accompanied by increased energy invested in the Look East policy, with the new "Active Orientalism" policy being placed on the agenda. Although India may not have been able to successfully contain China and manage its power-gaining efforts in the first phase of the Look East policy, what is certain is that one of the most important priorities of this country in the second phase of the Look East policy, that is, when the "Active Orientalism" policy was adopted in 2014, was to try and focus on containing China and preventing the expansion and increase of its regional influence, which has been largely achieved through the integration of this strategy into the US Indo-Pacific strategy and the expansion and strengthening of the network of strategic partnerships with East and Southeast Asian countries. More importantly, India's "active orientalism" policy coincided with the United States' increasing efforts and desire to contain China, especially in the form of Barack Obama's "rebalance" strategy and Donald Trump's "Indo-Pacific" strategy, and has led to a kind of integration and expansion of India's role in the Asia-Pacific region. In his speech at the Shangri-La Summit in Singapore in 2018, Narendra Modi emphasized this issue. Also, he stated that the Indo-Pacific region includes the coasts of Africa to the Americas, and India should play an active role in this area.
Original Article
International Relations
Reza Zabihi; Javad Golestani
Volume 1, Issue 4 , January 2024, Pages 123-160
Abstract
IntroductionThe rise of China as one of the most successful models of economic development over the past four decades has drawn significant attention from many developing countries. Gradual reforms after 1978, the integration of market mechanisms with state guidance, export-oriented strategies, and massive ...
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IntroductionThe rise of China as one of the most successful models of economic development over the past four decades has drawn significant attention from many developing countries. Gradual reforms after 1978, the integration of market mechanisms with state guidance, export-oriented strategies, and massive infrastructure investment have turned China into a prominent example of a “developmental state.” This model has played a central role in bureaucratic efficiency, attracting foreign investment, developing strategic industries, and integrating into global value chains, while demonstrating resilience during the 2008 financial crisis and the U.S.–China trade war. In Iran, alongside the expansion of Tehran–Beijing relations and the growing orientation toward the East, the debate on the possibility of “indigenizing China’s development model” has become an important topic in policymaking and futures research.Although Iran and China share certain similarities—such as the strong role of the state and centralized planning—there are notable differences in political structure, institutional cohesion, political culture, innovation capacity, and geopolitical context.Research Question(s)Therefore, key questions emerge regarding the feasibility of adopting the Chinese model in Iran, the existing institutional and structural barriers, and the plausible future pathways. The central research question asks which components of China’s development model can be localized in Iran and what scenarios can be envisioned for the future trajectory of this process?Literature ReviewThe literature review shows that extensive studies from (Johnson,1982) and Wade’s developmental state theories to analyses by (Brandt & Rawski, 2008) highlight the role of the state and industrial policy in China’s success. The review goes under these subheadings. In Iran, reports by (the Parliament’s Research Center,2020) and recent studies such as (Mohammadi et al, 2024). have addressed the possibility of learning from China’s experience. However, most Iranian studies remain descriptive and rarely adopt a structural foresight approach focused on drivers, uncertainties, and future pathways. Despite the vast literature on the Chinese model, forward-looking, scenario-based analyses on its active localization in Iran remain limited a gap this research seeks to fill.MethodologyMethodologically, the study employs qualitative analysis and structural futures research, using document analysis, international indicators, statistical data, and the scholarly literature. Analytical tools include trend analysis, driver identification, critical uncertainties extraction, cross-impact matrix, and structural scenario building. The research identifies China’s major development trends—gradual reforms, active industrial policy, infrastructure investment, technology acquisition, developmental bureaucracy, export-oriented strategy, and innovation-driven growth. Two pivotal uncertainties are selected: (1) the Iranian government’s willingness and capacity for structural reforms, and (2) the condition of the international order and the extent of external openness. Based on these two axes, four macro-scenarios are developed: Asian Leap, Development in a Cage, Structural Missed Opportunities, and Collapsing Isolation.ResultsThe study concludes that localizing China’s development model in Iran is possible, but not through direct imitation or political replication. China’s success is the product of a complex combination of Confucian culture, authoritarian political order, professional bureaucracy, and gradual reforms—factors that either do not exist in Iran or function differently. Iran can adopt China’s economic, industrial, and technological components but cannot reproduce China’s political or cultural structures. Therefore, localization must be gradual, adaptive, and aligned with Iran’s institutional and social realities. The four scenarios demonstrate that only under the “Asian Leap”—the combination of domestic structural reforms and external openness—can localization be successful and sustainable. “Development in a Cage” yields slow and unstable progress; “Structural Missed Opportunities” reflects the loss of favorable international conditions;Discussion The objective of the study is to conduct a futures-oriented analysis of the trends and plausible scenarios for localizing China’s economic development model in Iran. To achieve this, the research uses a hybrid theoretical framework combining the developmental state theory, adaptive modernization, and critical futures studies, enabling simultaneous analysis of institutional, cultural, and future-oriented dimensions. Three core research questions guide the study: (1) Which key elements of China’s development model are transferable to Iran? (2) What structural, institutional, cultural, and geopolitical challenges hinder its localization? (3) Given major future uncertainties, what scenarios can be projected for the localization process? The research aims to go beyond descriptive or imitative interpretations and provide a comprehensive analytical outlook on capacities, constraints, and future pathways.ConclusionFindings indicate that several components of China’s development model hold significant potential for localization in Iran, including strategic state planning, targeted industrial policy, support for selected industries, export market diversification, digital and physical infrastructure development, and technology acquisition through joint cooperation. These components are primarily economic and technical and can be adapted to Iran’s existing capacities. However, challenges such as institutional fragmentation, governance weaknesses, social trust deficits, restricted foreign relations, oil dependency, policy instability, and weak innovation and R&D represent major obstacles. Cultural differences also matter: Confucian values such as order, discipline, hierarchy, and the prioritization of collective interest—key sources of legitimacy for development policies in China—cannot be fully replicated in Iran.
Original Article
International Relations
Shahab Alddin Shokri; Abbas Malleki
Volume 1, Issue 4 , January 2024, Pages 161-202
Abstract
Problem and BackgroundThe Russian invasion of Ukraine can be seen as a turning point in shaping the new global order, marked by the emergence of new trends in the energy sector. It remains to be seen how the intersection of energy supply security and demand will shift the center of gravity in the future ...
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Problem and BackgroundThe Russian invasion of Ukraine can be seen as a turning point in shaping the new global order, marked by the emergence of new trends in the energy sector. It remains to be seen how the intersection of energy supply security and demand will shift the center of gravity in the future order. This balance leads to the strengthening of which axis: unilateralism, renewed polarization, or the development of a multilateral system? In this context, examining the significant correlation between Putinism and energy over the past two decades is important, as the breakdown of this correlation should be examined as an explanatory element among the potential consequences of the war. The constituent elements of Putinism include: Putin's personality cult, sacred state security, primacy of national interests, Orthodox values, conservative and illiberal nationalism, Putin's causal role in implementing Russia's foreign policy, understanding Russia's foreign policy within the framework of its relations with the West, the long-term characteristic of Russia's geographical space, empire, and the idea of great power, and the dominant role of economic interests in Russia's foreign policy. The result of these factors has been manifested in the paradigm of individual emergence over the institution. In other words, the common denominator of the above themes lies in the centrality of the agent. Therefore, in analyzing Russia's political action, energy can be considered one of the main factors explaining the Ukraine war when combined with Putinism. The premise is that Russia always emphasizes the continuity of energy armament and will pursue an energy pivot policy to ensure its demand-driven energy security. However, this strategy will have a high opportunity cost for Russia, and new actors will also avoid creating any mutual dependencies in Russia's favor. Therefore, the research hypothesis is the weakening of Russia's political and economic position as an energy-focused power, even in the case of strengthening a multipolar order, and its attempt to maintain its position through institutional and especially regional solidarities.Research ObjectiveThe aim of this research is to understand the factors influencing Russia's decision-making system and its manifestation in the country's energy-driven foreign policy. This can help better comprehend the defining role of energy in shaping the future global order from Russia's perspective. This research seeks to examine how the Ukraine war impacts the configuration of the global order. In this context, investigating its intervening role in the relationship between Putinism and energy, as foundations for maintaining and reviving great power status, is of particular importance. Therefore, redefining Putinism as a model of energy-driven state-building in the transitioning global order is necessary.Research MethodTo understand Putinism in the economic framework of Russia and its connection with energy, the neorealist theory has higher explanatory power due to its emphasis on the nationalism of power resources. This approach considers the state as the main actor in the energy sector and emphasizes the dominance of national interests over energy policy. Energy weaponization and ensuring sufficient fossil fuel imports by importing countries are key dimensions of the relationship between the state and energy in the neorealist discourse. Therefore, Russia is referred to as a country that pursues "resource nationalism". In this research, in continuation of the qualitative explanation with regard to the aforementioned theoretical framework, quantitative analysis was used to examine the correlation between GDP growth and the share of military expenditures from GDP, as well as the co-movement of Russia's hydrocarbon revenues with its GDP in the period from 2000 to 2023. For this purpose, using SPSS software, the Pearson statistic was tested based on two prerequisites of quantitative nature and normal distribution of variables. Additionally, considering the focus of sanctions on Russia's oil flows in early March 2022, and the approval of the sixth sanctions package by the trans-Atlantic community, time series mean comparison tests were used to provide a more precise picture of the redefinition of this energy-driven state-building.Report of Research FindingsThe findings showed that the share of military expenditures from GDP has had a mild increasing trend, with no significant variance. In contrast, the distance between peaks and valleys in the GDP growth rate curve is significant. There is a significant and highly intense negative correlation between the two-time series. This means that, on average, as the GDP growth rate decreases, military expenditures increase. In other words, the high share of military expenditures from the economic pie has been consistently maintained, indicating considerable pressure on the country's economy from this variable.The correlation between Russia's GDP in rubles and the federal budget share from crude oil and natural gas revenues during the period from 2012 to 2022 shows a high stickiness of the budget to hydrocarbon revenues. This is while Russia's oil and gas revenues between January and June 2023 have experienced a significant decrease compared to the same period last year.After the approval of the sixth sanctions package against Russian crude oil in June 2022, the dependence of the European Union, United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Canada on Russian crude oil has decreased. In contrast, Russian crude oil exports to India, China, Turkey, and other countries outside the European Union and G7 have increased. Overall, the eastern orientation of Russia's energy policy is visible, at least in the short term, to counter sanctions. The interaction of Putinism and energy within the framework of the Ukraine war can be outlined in the following potential scenarios:-Formation of a bipolar order centered on the United States and China-Transatlantic split-Chinese Eurasian order-Russian victoryConclusionEnergy is a fundamental variable in stabilizing Putin's Russia, which, in combination with Putinism, has played an effective role in shaping its foreign policy from 2000 to the present. The eastward shift of Russia's energy policy after the Ukraine war is a tactical imperative to counter sanctions, and its sustainability in the long term is challenging. This could lead to an asymmetric interdependence that goes against Russia's interests. If Russia cannot achieve its energy hegemony goal, and its energy adhesion is modulated not through structural reforms but through international coercive means, this scenario will pass through the Ukrainian crisis. Ultimately, in response to the research question, it can be said that the Ukraine war, by intensifying the divergence between Putinism and energy, has strengthened the unbalanced multipolar order centered on China.
Original Article
International Relations
Mitra Rahnejat; Ebrahim Mohammadi; Zahra Sadri
Volume 1, Issue 4 , January 2024, Pages 203-250
Abstract
Iran’s strategic geopolitical position situates it as a crucial transit hub for international trade, offering one of the most promising corridors for the movement of goods between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Despite this potential, Iran has not fully leveraged this advantage due to numerous ...
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Iran’s strategic geopolitical position situates it as a crucial transit hub for international trade, offering one of the most promising corridors for the movement of goods between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Despite this potential, Iran has not fully leveraged this advantage due to numerous internal barriers. This research seeks to systematically identify and analyze the domestic obstacles impeding the development and efficient operation of two major international transit corridors passing through Iran: The North-South Corridor and the East-West Corridor. Although Iran has historically played a significant role in regional transit, its prominence has diminished in recent decades due to a combination of internal inefficiencies and external geopolitical challenges.Literature ReviewMany studies, both inside Iran and internationally, have examined transit and international corridors from various perspectives.In Persian sources, an article on the “Geoeconomic Impacts of Gwadar and Chabahar Ports Development” (2018) analyzes the strategic competition between these ports and regional trade expansion, focusing on China’s Xinjiang-Gwadar initiative and geopolitical pressures on India. This differs from the current thesis, which emphasizes internal institutional barriers.The Transit Report in Iran highlights the economic importance of transit, increased government revenue, job creation, and mitigating sanctions but mainly focuses on maritime and road transit, with limited discussion of oil transit through specific ports, differing from this research’s broader approach.The “Corridors: A Deterrent Force” study explores the North-South corridor’s routes and regional agreements like the Ashgabat Pact, focusing on geopolitical deterrence rather than internal challenges.Abdollah Sepahi’s analysis of Iran’s rail freight transit evaluates technical and economic potentials and rail branches between China and Europe but pays less attention to institutional obstacles.A geographic study on Chabahar’s role in the North-South corridor highlights its geopolitical challenges and weak infrastructure but lacks the internal barrier focus of this thesis.Internationally, studies such as “International Transport Corridor ‘North-South’ in Russia’s Strategy” (2021) concentrate on Russia’s interests and incomplete corridor implementation, differing from the comprehensive domestic focus here. Other works discuss Iran’s foreign investment dependency, India’s regional strategies, and Azerbaijan’s ambitions, contrasting with this thesis’s internal lens.Russian reports address Eurasian transit corridors and global shipping markets, while a Russian project on future logistics corridors emphasizes geopolitical and geographic aspects over internal national barriers.Overall, while much research emphasizes geopolitical, economic, and infrastructural factors, few tackle the internal institutional and managerial barriers impeding effective corridor use. This study aims to address this gap through qualitative analysis and grounded theory to offer practical solutions for revitalizing Iran’s transit system.MethodologyThe study employs a qualitative research design based on grounded theory methodology. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with fifteen experts drawn from various sectors related to transit and international trade in Iran, including the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development, the Islamic Republic of Iran Railways, academic specialists in international relations, and experts from research institutes such as the Iran Transportation Institute and the World Studies Center. The interviews amounted to over 60 hours of recorded and transcribed discussions.The collected data were analyzed through a three-stage coding process: initial (open) coding, secondary (axial) coding, and selective coding. This systematic approach allowed for the emergence of conceptual clusters and the formulation of a new theoretical framework explaining the internal obstacles to Iran’s transit development. Supplementing the interviews, a thorough literature review provided contextual grounding from both international relations and trade corridor management perspectives.ResultsAnalysis revealed four main internal barriers affecting Iran’s transit sector:Interfering Institutions: Multiple government agencies such as customs, plant protection, and other regulatory bodies operate with overlapping responsibilities, creating bureaucratic hurdles and inefficiencies that delay or obstruct transit operations.Lack of a Unified Transit Authority: The absence of a single, dedicated managerial entity responsible for overseeing and coordinating all aspects of transit management has led to fragmented policies and inconsistent implementation across regions and corridors.Sanctions and External Pressures: Although sanctions are an external factor, their influence significantly aggravates internal challenges by limiting access to finance, technology, and international partnerships, and by fostering risk-averse attitudes among domestic agencies.Lack of Shared National Vision: There is no coherent long-term strategic discourse or unified national approach among the various ministries and institutions involved. This fragmentation prevents effective cooperation and alignment on policies necessary to promote and sustain corridor development.These findings underscore the complex interplay between internal governance shortcomings and external geopolitical constraints. Despite the significant economic advantages that transit corridors offer—including increased foreign exchange earnings, employment opportunities, and enhanced geopolitical leverage—Iran’s internal systemic problems have led to stagnation and, in some cases, regression of transit activities in recent years.DiscussionThe findings of this study reflect deeper structural and institutional issues that go beyond infrastructure limitations. One of the most critical insights is the absence of strategic coordination among state bodies. Ministries and agencies operate independently, often with conflicting interests, leading to redundant procedures and a lack of alignment on national priorities. This approach has undermined efforts to modernize and integrate Iran’s transit system into global trade routes.Moreover, the study highlights how international sanctions—though external in origin—have produced internal dysfunctions. Rather than prompting institutional adaptation or reform, sanctions have fostered a risk-averse culture in which institutions avoid innovation or cross-sectoral collaboration, fearing legal or political repercussions. This response has deepened inefficiencies rather than overcome them.Another key concern is regional competition. Countries like Turkey, Azerbaijan, and even Central Asian states have invested heavily in becoming viable transit routes, often supported by international partnerships and clear long-term strategies. In contrast, Iran’s delay in addressing its internal shortcomings is causing it to fall behind in this increasingly competitive regional landscape.The theoretical core emerging from the data analysis—the absence of a shared strategic discourse—emphasizes that the root of Iran’s transit underperformance is not only technical or infrastructural but discursive and institutional. Without a common national narrative and long-term vision for transit development, various stakeholders work at cross purposes, leading to inefficiency, waste, and missed opportunities.Conclusion and RecommendationsThe study concludes that addressing internal barriers is critical for Iran to reclaim and strengthen its position as a key transit hub in the region. To this end, several practical recommendations emerge:Eliminate Redundant Legal and Administrative ProceduresEstablish a Single, Unified Transit AuthorityEnhance Customs Facilitation through "Green Channel" SystemsImplement Integrated Terminal Management StrategiesUltimately, this research provides a new, empirically grounded framework for understanding Iran’s transit challenges and offers actionable insights for reform. By promoting institutional coordination, strategic planning, and a unified national vision, Iran can position itself to regain relevance in global trade corridors and unlock the full benefits of its geographic advantage.
