Iranian Perspectives on the Balance of Power in a Neo-Cold War Era

Introduction
Analytical approaches and development-oriented research in International Relations (IR), particularly when a logical alignment and convergence emerge from prevailing attitudes toward the surrounding world, can help identify indicators that clarify scientific outcomes. The author’s studies have revealed patterns in Iranian IR that suggest a reliable alignment. If expressed systematically, this alignment could serve as a conceptual lens for understanding today’s international system.
The central research question of this study is:
Is convergence and alignment visible in the attitudes of the Iranian IR toward the current international system, such that it can be formulated as a single, generalizable theory?
Literature Review
In recent years, several politicians and analysts have raised the possibility of a Neo-Cold War. Following the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Kremlin repeatedly found itself on the verge of such a conflict, especially in situations where Moscow was perceived as being at a disadvantage compared to allied rivals. Notably, discussions of a Neo-Cold War are not limited to Russia’s territorial ambitions; similar debates have emerged regarding U.S.–China relations. A survey of the academic literature on Iranian IR concerning the Neo-Cold War reveals a limited number of works. Most analyses focus on Russian foreign policy or regional tensions in Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Syria. None has proposed a hypothesis aimed at constructing a comprehensive theory of the Neo-Cold War. Similarly, English-language studies largely integrate events surrounding Russia and China, yet fail to present novel theoretical frameworks. Instead, researchers often treat contemporary tensions as analogous to the Cold War of the 20th century, suggesting the potential for a Neo-Cold War in the international system.
Methodology
This study employs Constructive Grounded Theory as its primary research method, deemed appropriate for generating a context-sensitive theoretical framework grounded in empirical evidence. The research corpus consisted of 1,500 Persian-language articles relevant to Iranian perspectives on international relations.
Articles were analyzed using Categorical Content Analysis, guided by predefined theoretical keywords. The analysis was conducted in two stages:
Human expert coding – initial qualitative assessment by subject-matter experts.
Computer-assisted coding – verification and enhancement of coding accuracy using specialized software.
The coding process followed the three-stage grounded theory approach:
Open coding – identifying key concepts and categories emerging from the data.
Axial coding – examining relationships between categories and subcategories.
Selective coding – integrating categories to construct a coherent theoretical model.
This method allowed the systematic extraction of recurring assumptions, patterns, and principles underlying Iranian IR thought.
Research Findings
The analysis of the reviewed corpus revealed that Iranian perspectives on the current international system (IS) are characterized by the following core assumptions:
Primacy of the state: States are considered the principal actors in the current IS.
Acknowledgment of anarchy: Recognition of the anarchic nature of the international environment.
Application of a realism paradigm, interpreted with a native understanding of IR concepts, including:
Self-help: Achieved through economic interdependence and, when necessary, resorting to unconventional weapons.
Deterrence: Exercised via soft power threats targeting vital interests and/or through hard power measures.
Security dilemma: Any increase in the power or capabilities of an actor or bloc, even without aggressive intent, provokes reactions from others.
Great powers tend to secure national interests and maintain the status quo, often exerting negative influence on international events. Hegemony: Skepticism toward the sustainability of hegemony, with emphasis on the decline of dominant powers. International organizations: Viewed as minimally effective, primarily supporting the maintenance of the status quo. International law: Considered selectively enforced and largely ineffective, serving the interests of status quo actors. These findings highlight a coherent alignment in Iranian IR thought, emphasizing realist principles while incorporating a culturally and contextually informed understanding of international relations.
Results
The synthesis of the research findings leads to the formulation of an “Iranian theory on the balance of power arising from the Neo-Cold War.” According to this theory, the dynamics of the current international system (IS) can be analyzed through a balance-of-power framework in the post-Cold War era. This framework is shaped by competition between two primary groups of actors:
 
Status quo actors – a united bloc benefiting from the existing system, referred to as protectors and supporters of the status quo. Revisionist actors – those dissatisfied with the current system, seeking either partial or fundamental transformation of the status quo. In practice, the balance-of-power mechanism functions as follows: Revisionist actors take individual or coordinated steps to create disorder, challenging the existing arrangements. Status quo actors respond by attempting to contain or mitigate disorder, aiming to preserve systemic stability. These interactions often lead to temporary concessions from the status quo, after which conditions return to equilibrium. Because the international system is characterized by an anarchic structure, revisionist actors typically form temporary coalitions and strategic alliances with one another, guided by pragmatic, realism-informed strategies. If revisionist actors overcome the limitations of temporary alliances and achieve long-term unity, the IS may transition into a new bipolar structure, resembling a Neo-Cold War order. Such a transformation would mark the definitive end of the post-Cold War era. Regarding Iran’s position in this framework, the country’s pragmatic “look to the East” policy and ongoing efforts to join strategic alliances such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization place it among the actors dissatisfied with the status quo. These actions reflect a deliberate attempt to reform or partially transform the international system, positioning Iran as a revisionist actor within the emerging balance-of-power dynamics.