Original Article
International Relations
SeyedJalal Dehghani Firozabadi; Seyed Reza Mousavinia; Firouze Radfar
Volume 1, Issue 3 , October 2024, Pages 1-38
Abstract
IntroductionEnvironmental developments, such as increasing air temperature, drought, dust, pandemics, loss of underground water tables, etc., have definite consequences in the social, political, and security fields, and require the cooperation of governments, institutions, and groups at the regional ...
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IntroductionEnvironmental developments, such as increasing air temperature, drought, dust, pandemics, loss of underground water tables, etc., have definite consequences in the social, political, and security fields, and require the cooperation of governments, institutions, and groups at the regional level and International. This article aims to identify future environmental trends at the level of the international system; Draw possible environmental futures at the international level until 2030 and show the future scenarios of the Islamic Republic of Iran in this field. The research question is, what are the possible environmental futures at the level of the international system until 2030? The research results show that the rapid growth of green technologies, changing population patterns, the continuation of pandemics, the continuation of climate changes, and increased competition of governments due to limited resources will be the possible futures of the international system in the environmental field until 2030. The results of the research also show that the Islamic Republic of Iran will face serious challenges in the face of global environmental crises, and political and economic limitations will also be woven into these challenges. While most countries will turn to green technology in the face of these challenges, Iran's restrictions on the use of green technology will be an important driver until 2030. The research method is future research with the technique of extrapolation of future-making trends using the "cross-impact trends" matrix.The results of this research are:1) The inevitable future of governments and societies until 2030 to deal with environmental threats will be investing and benefiting from green technologies (conditional favorable scenario) Until 2030, governments will have no escape from moving towards green technologies to deal with climate change. Due to the consensus that exists in the world about moving towards this type of technology, this scenario is also for the Islamic Republic of Iran, both in the domestic arena and to deal with environmental challenges such as drought, air and sea pollution, and in the regional arena to deal with It will be useful and effective with challenges such as micro dust and in the global arena to deal with global challenges such as rising air temperature and the spread of panda The only challenge will be to create harmony between national, regional and international interests.2) Changing demographic patterns (aging, migration) will continue until 2030. (conditionally tolerable scenario)Changing demographic patterns at the global level (aging and immigration) in terms of the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the recommendations of the theory of neoliberal institutionalism do not pose much danger to the Islamic Republic of Iran and is considered a more tolerable scenario for Iran because, firstly, the rate of aging of the country's population in comparison It is less accelerated than other countries and Iran's population will still be young until 2030 and this trend can be changed by planning3) Changing population patterns (urbanization growth) will continue until 2030. (unfavorable scenario)The growth of urbanization in the world will continue until 2030, and the current trends show that this unfavorable global scenario also exists in Iran, so that the rate of urbanization in Iran has intensified. If the limited resources are not managed, this will be an unfavorable scenario for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran is in the semi-arid region of the Middle East. In the current situation, the country is facing a crisis in water resources. The result of the growth of the urban population is the increase in water and food consumption of the country, and in the situation of shortage of these resources, the country may face security crises4) Until 2030, pandemics will continue as a global threat. (Undesirable scenario) The spread of pandemics like Corona is considered an unfavorable scenario for the Islamic Republic of Iran, because in terms of the country's national interests, pandemics are a threat that, firstly, may endanger the lives of thousands of people, secondly, take a lot of resources, and thirdly, if production units are closed, services, etc. have extensive political and security consequences for the country. Theoretically, the country will need drugs and vaccines to deal with these pandemics, and since most of the big pharmaceutical companies are in Europe and America, it will be very difficult to cooperate under sanctions5) Until 2030, climate changes (increasing temperature, drought, etc.) will be strengthened. (adverse scenario) According to all estimates, climate changes such as temperature rise and drought will intensify by 2030, and this is an unfavorable scenario for Iran. According to the UN forecast, Iran will also face a chronic water shortage from 2025. The last water year in Iran was the driest in the past 52 years, and the effects of this drought clearly show themselves in the flow of water, and storage of dams, lakes, and wetlands of the country. 6) By 2030, resource limitations will intensify the competition of governments in the environmental field (unfavorable scenario)Since the Islamic Republic of Iran is in a hot and semi-arid region, continuing environmental trends such as increasing air temperature, drought, and lack of water resources is an unfavorable scenario for Iran. Among the 17 countries that have the first rank in the world regarding water crisis, 12 countries are in the Middle East and North Africa. The water crisis in Iran is an important threat to national security and therefore an important challenge for the country's foreign policy.
Original Article
International Relations
Zohre Akrami; Mohammad Jamshidi
Volume 1, Issue 3 , October 2024, Pages 39-80
Abstract
Problem and Background
Many people had high hopes for significant improvements to the United States foreign policy when Barack Obama took office as president in 2009. Obama’s administration faced enormous financial and military burdens, as well as a great deal of anti-American sentiment due to ...
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Problem and Background
Many people had high hopes for significant improvements to the United States foreign policy when Barack Obama took office as president in 2009. Obama’s administration faced enormous financial and military burdens, as well as a great deal of anti-American sentiment due to George W. Bush Jr.'s aggressive strategy in Afghanistan and Iraq. Following these developments, it appeared that the US was committed to cutting costs and dispelling anti-US sentiment globally, particularly overseas. Obama discussed resolving Iran’s nuclear challenges, bringing an end to the Iraqi conflict, advancing peace between Israel and Palestine, and adopting a fresh approach to diplomacy with the Islamic world when running for office. Despite his concurrent pursuit of his “pivoting to Asia” concept, the Middle East did not appear to have lost direction in this country’s foreign and security-military policy. While in the White House, Obama announced initiatives like minimal footprint, pivoting to Asia, and distant leadership in an attempt to reverse the approaches of his predecessors. A modification that has essentially always been the topic of debate over its nature, requirements, and implementation.
It took a long time for the United States to comprehend the nature of the still-unstable changes in the Arab world, where countries like Egypt are frequently close to the country. In addition to changing the military and security setup of the United States, the rise of unconventional powers within formerly friendly countries also presented new threats. Washington consistently stressed that Iran should remain the primary focus of the Middle East’s challenges, although dealing with specific positions and steps in response to developments in the Arab world. Simultaneously, he forged unique partnerships with emerging players, inviting them to participate in the area.
Following Obama, Donald Trump likewise believed that Iran was the primary cause of the Middle East’s problems. He referred to the nuclear agreement with Iran as a “very bad agreement” and ultimately tightened sanctions against the country by applying the greatest amount of pressure. Donald Trump was also conscious of the costs associated with his nation’s military involvement in the region. Throughout his speech, he emphasized the need for all of the nations in the region to fulfill their security and military obligations, particularly in the Persian Gulf and in anticipation of the US pulling out of the Middle East sooner rather than later. Along with the Palestinian issue, he also brought up schemes like the “Deal of the Century” and the relocation of the US embassy to Tel Aviv. In the end, he withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal.
Research Objective
The objective of this study is to comprehend the Middle Eastern geopolitical processes that transpired from 2009 to 2018 and assess their influence on the military-security policies and plans of the United States as a global and regional actor. All levels of analysis should be used to assess these developments, which have given the world’s political knowledge a new dimension of menace and chaos. Using a new term of management and involvement in international relations for all participants in this region is a severe and essentially inevitable task today since turning to traditional ways of crisis resolution in the current world imposes astronomical costs.
Research Method
This research endeavors to comprehend the contemporary tactics and reactions of the United States of America in the Middle East. The White House, the Pentagon, and US military and security agencies provide records and studies that the author of this piece uses to determine this superpower’s security strategy. As one of the major and influential actors in the area, the Islamic Republic of Iran is both impacted by and has a broad influence on regional developments. Iran may make more informed decisions about its regional alliances and increase its influence in the region by recognizing US behavior and comprehending the formula of US policies in its Middle East partnerships. This underscores the importance of this study.
Report of Research Findings
After careful analysis, this report concludes that the benefits of this partnership outweigh the money the US spent on its prior military presence strategies. By boosting the possibility of aid from friends, the strategic partnership has allowed the United States to improve both deterrence against its forces in the region and its capacity to defend itself against assault. However, realism also explains why countries and non-governmental organizations in the Middle East find strategic partnerships with the United States appealing. An ally is more open to entering into a strategic alliance the weaker it is.
Over more than seven decades, the United States has had many plans for security cooperation in the Middle East. These have included training local forces and direct engagement in the fight, with the most significant being the supply of weapons and ammunition to the region. Compared to Asia and Europe, the US has far more slack in its partnership with the Middle East. To combat ISIS, the United States can form a significant coalition with Arab nations and collaborate with Tehran and Damascus concurrently with a Sunni alliance. The extreme unrest in this region has made forming long-term alliances exceedingly challenging.
According to US military and security records, China’s circumstances have altered so much over the years that the notion of the US having the most expensive army in the world engaged in a full-scale conflict and maybe losing is still entertained. It seems as though this army’s methods are out of step with the demands of the contemporary world.
Conclusion
The United States has adopted two primary and interrelated strategies to counter these contemporary threats: expanding its network of allies and partners and strengthening its military’s capacity to operate throughout the world. With the ultimate goal of preserving the balance of power in strategically important regions of the world and defending the vital interests of the United States, partners, and allies bolster America’s military and political capabilities and support its operations. Additionally, the United States provides these partners with deterrence against aggressors. Being able to confront adversarial allies and partners and strengthen this alliance while also preventing them from depending on the US to achieve their military objectives would be ideal for the US defense system because it would be less costly and risky to establish deterrence in this scenario. Furthermore, it will strengthen this nation’s capacity to deal with its adversaries in the future
Original Article
International Relations
Ali Karami; Afshin Mottaghi Destanaei
Volume 1, Issue 3 , October 2024, Pages 81-146
Abstract
IntroductionTraditionally, public diplomacy has been centered around collecting and disseminating information. On the one hand, diplomats must collect information about how foreign audiences perceive the actions of a particular government, and on the other hand, they must assess the nature of relations ...
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IntroductionTraditionally, public diplomacy has been centered around collecting and disseminating information. On the one hand, diplomats must collect information about how foreign audiences perceive the actions of a particular government, and on the other hand, they must assess the nature of relations between the two countries and identify opportunities or threats of bilateral cooperation. In this regard, the most important obstacles and problems facing the public diplomacy cycle are: Chart 1: Obstacles and problems of the public diplomacy cycleHowever, throughout history, technological advances have always impacted the field of diplomacy and public diplomacy and often transformed the structure of international relations. Consider the emergence of the telegraph in the nineteenth century, an advancement that transformed diplomatic communications by drastically reducing the time needed to exchange messages between countries. This transition accelerated diplomatic negotiations and created new dynamics in power relations and information management. Similarly, the emergence of the Internet in the late twentieth century further transformed diplomacy and enabled instant global communications and rapid dissemination of information. While the Internet revolutionized how we communicate, work, and access information, artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming how we live, work, and interact with technology. AI is a branch of computer science that aims to develop intelligent machines that can perform tasks typically requiring human intelligence. AI systems use algorithms and deep learning models to learn from large datasets and improve accuracy over time. AI can be divided into two primary types: narrow or weak AI and general or strong AI. Narrow AI is designed to perform specific tasks, while general AI is intended for human-like thinking and reasoning. Like the Internet, AI has the potential to transform society in ways we cannot yet predict. Both technologies have the power to create new industries and change existing ones. As we examine the potential and challenges of integrating AI into diplomacy, it is important to note that technology has continuously acted as a catalyst for change in this field and established a precedent for AI's potential role in shaping the future of international relations.Research backgroundTable 1: Literature ReviewNo Authors Title1 Walker AI and the Future of Public Diplomacy2 Trabelsi Loeb A Revolution in Diplomacy with AI: Crossing New Frontiers for a Peaceful Tomorrow3 Nweiran AI and Public Diplomacy4 Franke AI Diplomacy5 Jafarova AI and Digital Diplomacy6 Williams and Otto AI as a Tool of Public Diplomacy: The Relationship between the United States and Iran7 Konovalova AI and Diplomacy: Challenges and Opportunities8 Duberry AI Diplomacy: A Vision for Future Multilateralism?(Reference: research findings, 2024)PurposeAccordingly, the present study aimed to analyze and examine the role of AI in public diplomacy. The main research question is: what are the strengths, weaknesses, as well as opportunities and threats of the widespread implementation of AI in public diplomacy?MethodThis study used a SWOT analysis and data was collected through review of theoretical literature and previous research. The SWOT method shown below was used to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of AI in public diplomacy. This study uses the SWOT components as the four main categories of analytical subjects. The themes and patterns in the four main categories are processed mostly through an inductive analysis of the findings. A total of 18 research papers were selected for the final analysis in this study.FindingsThe main findings resulting from reviewing and studying 18 research papers listed in the above table have been classified into categories of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the table below:Table 2: Findings classified using SWOTFindings Beneficial for achieving goals Harmful for achieving goalsInternal Strengths:Reinforcing decision makingCrisis management and conflict resolutionLanguage translation and cultural understandingGenerating acceptable responsesSelf-constructionOffering personalized responsesProviding immediate responsesCost efficiencyData analysisDiplomatic services Weaknesses:Lack of relevant data in countriesCosts of actively collecting data for measurementInstitutional corruption and instabilityLack of deep understanding of quality issues in response evaluationRisk of bias and discriminationLack of higher-order thinking skillsInitial costsPrivacy of dataComplexityExternal Opportunities:Digital labor and outsourcing for employmentTransparent and corruption-free governmental processesPassive data collectionLeadership in public diplomacy domainCustomizationExpansion Threats:Bias in AI algorithmsSecurity concernsInternational cooperation and standardizationCyber security and information warfareSkills gapOversight challengesJob loss and labor displacement ConclusionAI software can be used to better understand where narratives take root, helping public diplomacy practitioners know where to focus attention and resources to counter misinformation and hostile influence campaigns. AI's data collection capabilities can help diplomats analyze how their country's interests and actions are portrayed in foreign media, and then local information and outreach efforts to improve penetration. AI-based analysis of social media platforms can also assess the impact of content produced through public diplomacy. In addition to external analytical capabilities, AI tools can simplify internal datasets and global events through the analysis of diplomatic documents sent by embassies, media summaries, briefings, and even diplomats' analysis of local information. Ministries of foreign affairs, ambassadors, and diplomats can use AI tools like chatbots, GPT-3, or Anthropic to analyze news coverage about their home country, gaining insights into topics of discussion reflecting the country's changing political, social, and economic outlook, some potential trends observable over the long term, periodic shifts and changes in media priorities influenced by live geo-political dynamics and events. With modern AI technology, voice mimicry is also possible. Diplomatic channels may be monitored by other countries' intelligence agencies and potentially criminal groups that can access specialized technologies like eavesdropping. Often hidden data (photos, videos, audio recordings) and even fabricated news that an ordinary person could in no way verify their authenticity appear in the media. Such manipulations pose a serious threat to social stability and influence public opinion. AI technologies can also be used in political struggles against rival forces. Diplomats' readiness for change and understanding and use of AI technologies is important. This highlights the need for interdisciplinary educational programs combining innovative thinking, big data management, and machine learning to strengthen effective collaboration between diplomats and technical experts.
Original Article
International Relations
Danyal Rezapoor; Mostafa Sabouri
Volume 1, Issue 3 , October 2024, Pages 147-172
Abstract
Research and the Purpose of the Research
Given the foundational nature of anthropological discussions in shaping the perspectives and actions of states in international politics, it seems essential to propose alternative approaches. One alternative approach that has gained increased attention is the ...
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Research and the Purpose of the Research
Given the foundational nature of anthropological discussions in shaping the perspectives and actions of states in international politics, it seems essential to propose alternative approaches. One alternative approach that has gained increased attention is the Confucian intellectual tradition, particularly as it aligns with the strengthening inclination towards non-Western and indigenous theories, alongside China's rising power in both material and symbolic realms of the international system. Therefore, this article addresses the question of what interpretation of human nature is presented in Confucian tradition and how this interpretation is reflected in China's perspective on the international system. The argument of this article posits that, within the Confucian tradition, humans are regarded as inherently moral and relational beings. This means that benevolence, altruism, and responsibility towards others are seen as moral virtues rooted in human essence. Humans become aware of and inevitably actualize these virtues within the context of relationships, interactions, and social roles, which they incorporate into their decisions and actions. These interpretations of human nature have somewhat manifested in China's foreign policy, reinforcing principles such as pacifism and war avoidance, multilateralism, non-interventionism, and a limited and cautious approach to international responsibility.
Research Method
This important task will be conducted based on a descriptive-analytical approach using trend research and case studies as qualitative research methods. For data collection, we will utilize documentary library sources and reputable websites in the virtual space.
Research Findings
Considering the position of this tradition in Chinese society, some Confucian teachings, particularly regarding the nature of humanity, have manifested in China's perspectives and actions within the international system. It can be said that China's foreign policy reflects Confucian principles concerning human nature and the notion of "being morally virtuous and benevolent." In this context, Wang Yi, the Chinese Foreign Minister, expressed his diplomatic stance of treating all countries equally within the framework of declared policy, emphasizing that "those who hold more power should not necessarily have the final say on the international stage." This somewhat egalitarian concept in Chinese diplomacy is closely related to four virtues from Confucian literature: benevolence (ren), a tendency towards righteousness (yi), adherence to rituals (li), and wisdom (zhi) (Chang & Prior, 2016). According to Confucian teachings, many conflicts and wars in international relations arise from self-interest and disregard for moral norms. Therefore, China, as a power, has shown little inclination towards engaging in war and has pursued a strategy of war avoidance and peace-seeking in its foreign policy during the modern era. Searching for common grounds for cooperation while respecting differences and disregarding political systems and semantic frameworks of countries has become part of Chinese diplomacy. Even when faced with the United States and its efforts to isolate China internationally, China avoids confrontation and seeks pathways for de-escalation. The avoidance of interventionism and the tendency to adopt an ideological stance are not unrelated to Confucian anthropology and a communicative, collectivist interpretation of human nature. In China's political culture regarding relations with other political entities, there is an emphasis on finding commonalities while preserving differences. It is said that the goal of interaction is to achieve harmony and stabilize relations rather than impose specific values (Samuel, 2023). In Chinese diplomacy, reciprocal relationships hold significant importance and determine how individuals view their relationships with others. From this perspective, pluralism is fundamental, and change must occur voluntarily.
Conclusion
In the Confucian tradition, humans are considered inherently moral and relational beings. This means that benevolence, as a moral virtue, is rooted in human essence, and human beings, through relationships, interactions, and social roles, become aware of and inevitably actualize this virtue in their decisions and actions. Traces of Confucian teachings on human nature are reflected in China's perspectives and actions, which, although unconsciously, have led to distinct behavioral patterns. China's avoidance of war, inclination towards de-escalation even with rival states, multilateralism, and non-alignment with interventionist approaches, as well as its limited and cautious international responsibility, which are identifiable patterns in China's foreign policy, are primarily based on a sound theoretical foundation and stem from the Confucian interpretation of human nature. China's culture and civilization are not limited to the creation of concepts and perspectives in foreign policy; one of the greatest examples demonstrating the position of Chinese culture and civilization in its foreign policy is the creation of identities with far-reaching and significant effects. China is recognized as one of the oldest and greatest human civilizations. This extensive historical background has created a unique identity for Chinese policymakers in the present era, through which they engage in foreign policy. Chinese nationalists or indigents, who emphasize Confucian traditions and their application, are an example of the influence of civilization and culture on China's identity and foreign policy. Accordingly, the position of culture and in the present, China is the only country whose modern leaders make decisions based on its history. The above factors collectively indicate the significant position of Chinese civilization and culture in the country's foreign policy, indirectly shaping and guiding it by creating specific worldviews and identities oriented toward Chinese civilization. As mentioned earlier, Chinese culture, which stems from the country's ancient civilization, is the most important source of China's soft power, comprising an uninterrupted long history accompanied by a multitude of traditions, concepts, perspectives, and values such as order, benevolence, compatibility, and harmony. From a broad perspective, the central core of Chinese culture is the concept of harmony. This value has encouraged Chinese leaders to invite the world to build a harmonious world; an idea pursued abroad in parallel with China's domestic policies.
Original Article
International Relations
Seyed Hasan Mirfakhraie
Volume 1, Issue 3 , October 2024, Pages 173-204
Abstract
IntroductionGeo-economy has become one of the emerging influential global factors at the strategic level. This factor is formed by the overlapping and complex political and economic trends in the interests of countries in a regional and international dynamism. In this regard, the signing of the Preferential ...
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IntroductionGeo-economy has become one of the emerging influential global factors at the strategic level. This factor is formed by the overlapping and complex political and economic trends in the interests of countries in a regional and international dynamism. In this regard, the signing of the Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) was the result of a political process of convergence between Iran and Russia in 2014, and also according to the new economic approaches of Iran and of course the Eurasian countries. However, despite offering economic and political opportunities, this agreement also faces significant political and structural challenges and obstacles. How to interact with these opportunities and challenges can influence bilateral, regional, and even international developments in the future. This situation will have wider dimensions, especially in the new conditions of the international system that emerged after the Russo-Ukrainian war. Accordingly, the sphere of influence of this agreement is considered to be beyond the economic field, but also in the geopolitical, also beyond the limited 3-year period mentioned in the text of the first PTA. At the same time, the mechanism of this effect and the factors influencing it are uncertain and there are still disagreements around it.Literature reviewSo far, various papers have been published in Persian and English about the cooperation between Iran and the EEU. Moslem Ansarinasab and Najmeh Bidmal in their paper "Iran’s Trade Promotion Strategy and Eurasian Economic Union" which is published in the Central Asia and the Caucasus Quarterly (2022), have analyzed the opportunities in trade promotion of Iran and the EEU from the perspective of three geo-economic components including economy, geography and the power. Somayeh Talebpoor et al in their paper entitled "The Role of the Eurasian Economic Union in the development of Iran's foreign trade" which was published in the Research Political Geography Quarterly (2022), assess the effects of the EEU on the development of Iran's foreign trade in the context of globalization trends. Mirabdullah Hosseini et al in their paper entitled " Regional Convergence Between Iran and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)" which was published in the Journal of Commercial Survey (2023) by analyzing the strengths and weaknesses, as well as opportunities and challenges, concluded that the lack of inter-regional trade development mainly caused by the export structure of the member states, therefore, the possibility of developing intra-regional trade and economic convergence in this union seems challenging. Amat Adarov and Mahdi Ghodsi in their paper " The impact of the Eurasian Economic Union–Iran preferential trade agreement on mutual trade at aggregate and sectoral levels" which was published in Eurasian Economic Review (Springer, 2021) assessed the achievements of this agreement in various levels. Elnur Mekhdiev et al in their paper entitled " Eurasian Economic Union – Iran Partnership on Bilateral and Multilateral Basis: Economic and Geopolitical Aspects" which was published in International Quarterly of Geopolitics (2023) examined the effectiveness of this agreement from an economic and geopolitical point of view. However, few papers have so far examined the drivers and barriers of this FTA especially after the war started in Ukraine.Research ObjectThe current paper seeks to identify the most important geo-economic drivers and barriers of the FTA between Iran and the EEU, so that an analytical model can be obtained for the development of this agreement and how to revive the geo-economy of Iran in the light of the Eurasian approach.MethodologyThis paper by integration of the quantitative-qualitative method, based on the comparative strategy and content analysis, with the theoretical conceptualization of geo-economic theory, in a descriptive-analytical approach, tries to examine the most important geo-economic drivers and barriers of the FTA between Iran and the EEU. The time domain is from 2014 to 2024.Results and discussionThe geopolitics of Iran and Eurasia are in proximity to each other. From this point of view, Iran is considered as the gateway of the geopolitical link between Eurasia and the Middle East, especially the southern seas. At the same time, with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the conditions of the region have changed in a way that has enhanced the role and geographical position of Iran for Russia and the Eurasian countries and of course their trading partners. On the other hand, there is a common "enemy" or in an optimistic view "competitor" (the United States of America) in both geopolitics, which has led to a greater connectivity. In the field of security, there are mutual interests for Iran and Eurasia in the three Eursian subsystems including Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the South Caucasus. These links have caused the neighboring relations between Iran and Eurasia to form a special structure that can be upgraded to a geo-economic connectivity. The EEU can be one of the catalysts for this connectivity.The free trade agreement between Iran and the EEU was the result of a political convergence process. Therefore, it cannot be considered purely political or exclusively economic. At the same time, this issue is involved with several geopolitical factors in strategic interest regions of Iran and Russia, which gives it geo-economic dimensions. The Ukraine war has accelerated this process as a catalyst. Therefore, any deeper evaluation of this situation should be considered in the geo-economic context. Accordingly, like any other important international agreement, this is accompanied by drivers and barriers in economics and politics. In the field of geo-economic drivers, we can mention factors like Iran's presence in the Eurasian integration, relieving the geopolitical deadlock, achieving an anti-sanctions mechanism in Eurasia, and forming the Eurasian energy block. For barriers we can mention two structural and political levels, factors such as the need for changes in the structure of the micro and macro economy of Iran, providing the infrastructure, internal political-economic disagreements in the EEU, unilateral and in-comprehensive determination of preferential tariffs and the effect of sanctions can be considered as influential factors.ConclusionThe final impact of the FTA between Iran and the EEU can be considered significant at a strategic level. The geographical sphere of influence should be considered not only among the 5 EEU member states but also in the entire Eurasian region. At the conceptual level, it can be evaluated that this event is a step in the conceptual evolution of Iran's trade development, which can provide trans-Eurasian advantages in the future. In time consideration, it should also be noted that in the case of structuring and creating economic interdependence between Iran and Eurasia, in the long term and far beyond this limited period of 3 years and its 6-year extension, its effects on trade turnover and economic ties between the two sides can be considered. Iran's strategic geo-economy is the main axis of this connectivity in the future. Therefore, it can be concluded that reaching this FTA with the EEU, if carefully planned and optimally used, can lead to the revival of Iran's geo-economic capacities in the long term.
Original Article
International Relations
Ali Alizadeh; Yakub Ghalandari; Hassan Kabiri
Volume 1, Issue 3 , October 2024, Pages 205-241
Abstract
IntroductionDue to its unique geopolitical features and resources, the Persian Gulf region has been very economically attractive for Western countries. The field of energy and energy technologies has caused regional and extra-regional countries to be attracted to this region. On the other hand, the energy-based ...
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IntroductionDue to its unique geopolitical features and resources, the Persian Gulf region has been very economically attractive for Western countries. The field of energy and energy technologies has caused regional and extra-regional countries to be attracted to this region. On the other hand, the energy-based political economy of the Persian Gulf region is entering a period of profound change as it intersects with the emergence of a younger leadership among US strategic partners such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have also moved to adopt long-term plans to diversify their economies, strengthen the private sector, and create jobs for a growing workforce. On the other hand, moving towards renewable energies and new energy technologies is growing in line with the diversification of the economies of these countries. These efforts in the field of energy have caused more cooperation and convergence between these countries to increase and increase stability and sustainable development in the region and provide opportunities for cooperation between the countries of the region. This research seeks to discuss and examine the factors involved in the convergence of the countries of the region in the field of energy and to answer the question of what role and place energy has in the convergence of the countries of the Persian Gulf region.The purpose of the researchConsidering the high importance of the economy category and the energy component in the international system, the most important goals and necessities are described as follows:- The spread of challenges among the Persian Gulf countries and the creation of divergence in the economic field- Interference of extra-regional countries in the current affairs of the Persian Gulf region and preventing convergence between the countries of the region- Lack of agreement on the issue of energy pricing (oil and energy carriers) and consequently the pressure on trans-regional countries and great powers to receive energy at a low price.- Extending economic divergence to political and security areas; Creating a crisis in the relations between the Persian Gulf countriesResearch methodThis article tries to answer the question raised in this research with a descriptive method. The data collection method in this research is consolidated and based on field and library methods. This means that to use the conceptual framework and necessary information to investigate the issue, library resources were used and books, articles, and websites in Latin and Persian languages were used. Also, statistical data has been used to enrich the work and show real data. In addition, five people were selected from among the specialists and professors of the university, and they were asked questions in the form of a semi-structured interview.Research findingsThe findings of the research show that convergence in the Persian Gulf environment is associated with challenges, one of these areas being energy. They are the first; dependence of great powers on Persian Gulf energy and second; The role of the Persian Gulf in the energy transit of the Caspian basin. The research also concludes that while challenges remain, strategic energy cooperation remains a key pillar of regional unity and stability in the Persian Gulf, highlighting its vital role in the global energy landscape.ConclusionWhat we have been looking for in this research is the answer to the question that was stated at the beginning; "What is the role and position of the energy component on the convergence of the countries of the Persian Gulf region?" we answered in this article. The statistical population of this research is the countries of the Persian Gulf, as it has been stated, the Persian Gulf was considered a peripheral land in the past geopolitical theories, but in the new geopolitical theories, this sea has become the land of "heartland" or "axis" or the center of centers. One of the most important reasons for the importance of this region is the presence of huge energy resources (oil and gas), which have always been the focus of great powers.Convergence in the general field between the Persian Gulf countries should be summarized in a few cases, the main of which are; oil and gas, common religion, common geopolitics, the Palestinian issue, the importance of the Strait of Hormuz, and the regional countries' dependence on it, cooperation in environmental fields, cooperation in the field of agriculture, cooperation in the field of transportation, research, scientific, educational and sports cooperation, cooperation in the framework of Organizations (OPEC Organization), active cooperation in the fight against terrorism.But the focus of this research has been mostly in the field of energy, where the most important capacities in this field are; First; the dependence of great powers on Persian Gulf energy and second; The role of the Persian Gulf in the energy transit of the Caspian basin. In the area of the first case that was mentioned, the developed countries and the great eastern powers, including India and China, have been in dire need of the oil resources of the Persian Gulf in the past years, and in the past years, they tried to attract the oil of the Persian Gulf countries with large contracts. They have had their position. On the other hand, the Western powers, including the European Union, could not meet their needs through the United States, so they came to the Persian Gulf. In the long run, this component can create a need for a new organization in addition to OPEC, through which all the countries of the Persian Gulf can achieve convergence.On the other hand, the Persian Gulf can have the energy of the Caspian basin in the direction of transit. For a long time, Russia has sought to gain access to the Persian Gulf and then to open waters, but it has never been able to achieve it easily. Iran's route can be the best way for Russia and other Caspian countries to reach this important region, and through that, the countries of the Persian Gulf can achieve convergence in the economic field with the cooperation and transit of these resources.Also, in this research, the theoretical framework of neo-functionalism has been used. Because neo-functionalists want to achieve political integration from economic integration. It seems that due to the cooperation of all the countries of the region, according to the historical and cultural foundations, regional convergence can be achieved. As stated; Political integration is a process by which political actors in several distinct national groups are trying to transfer their loyalty, expectations and political actions to a new center. Institutions that have more powers and demands than the previous governments. According to the economic capacities and existing capacities in the field of energy, the countries of the Persian Gulf can create organizations in this field; that these organizations provide more closeness and convergence with continuous and structured meetings.One of the most important factors that fuel the convergence in the energy field of the Persian Gulf is the dependence of the great economic and political powers of the world on the energy resources of this region. The increasing demand for oil and natural gas has made the countries of this region the main suppliers of these resources in the world. This interdependence requires cooperation and convergence to ensure the stability and security of energy supply and demand.Powerful countries such as the United States, China, the European Union, and Japan increasingly rely on oil and gas imports from the Persian Gulf region. This dependence creates a strong incentive for these countries to ensure stable access to energy resources by maintaining peaceful diplomatic and political relations with the countries of the region.In addition, major economic powers have made huge investments in the field of exploration, extraction and refining of energy resources in the Persian Gulf. These investments create common interests between these countries and the countries of the region, which, in turn, helps convergence in the field of energy and the overall stability of the region.The Persian Gulf region also plays a vital role in energy transit from the Caspian Sea to global markets. Caspian Sea countries, including the Republic of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, have significant reserves of oil and natural gas. However, due to the lack of access to deep water ports, these countries face challenges in exporting these resources to global markets.In this regard, transit routes through the Persian Gulf countries are considered an ideal option for exporting energy from the Caspian Sea basin. Pipelines and export terminals in this region provide the possibility of oil and gas transfer to global markets through the Oman Sea and the Persian Gulf.Cooperation between the countries of the Persian Gulf and the countries of the Caspian Sea in the field of energy transit provides the basis for joint investments, infrastructure development, and mutual benefits. This, in turn, helps convergence and stability in these two strategic regions.
