Chinese development, Localization, Critical Futures Studies, Iran’s economic development.

Introduction
The rise of China as one of the most successful models of economic development over the past four decades has drawn significant attention from many developing countries. Gradual reforms after 1978, the integration of market mechanisms with state guidance, export-oriented strategies, and massive infrastructure investment have turned China into a prominent example of a “developmental state.” This model has played a central role in bureaucratic efficiency, attracting foreign investment, developing strategic industries, and integrating into global value chains, while demonstrating resilience during the 2008 financial crisis and the U.S.–China trade war. In Iran, alongside the expansion of Tehran–Beijing relations and the growing orientation toward the East, the debate on the possibility of “indigenizing China’s development model” has become an important topic in policymaking and futures research.
Although Iran and China share certain similarities—such as the strong role of the state and centralized planning—there are notable differences in political structure, institutional cohesion, political culture, innovation capacity, and geopolitical context.
Research Question(s)
Therefore, key questions emerge regarding the feasibility of adopting the Chinese model in Iran, the existing institutional and structural barriers, and the plausible future pathways. The central research question asks which components of China’s development model can be localized in Iran and what scenarios can be envisioned for the future trajectory of this process?
Literature Review
The literature review shows that extensive studies from (Johnson,1982) and Wade’s developmental state theories to analyses by (Brandt & Rawski, 2008) highlight the role of the state and industrial policy in China’s success. The review goes under these subheadings. In Iran, reports by (the Parliament’s Research Center,2020) and recent studies such as (Mohammadi et al, 2024). have addressed the possibility of learning from China’s experience. However, most Iranian studies remain descriptive and rarely adopt a structural foresight approach focused on drivers, uncertainties, and future pathways. Despite the vast literature on the Chinese model, forward-looking, scenario-based analyses on its active localization in Iran remain limited a gap this research seeks to fill.
Methodology
Methodologically, the study employs qualitative analysis and structural futures research, using document analysis, international indicators, statistical data, and the scholarly literature. Analytical tools include trend analysis, driver identification, critical uncertainties extraction, cross-impact matrix, and structural scenario building. The research identifies China’s major development trends—gradual reforms, active industrial policy, infrastructure investment, technology acquisition, developmental bureaucracy, export-oriented strategy, and innovation-driven growth. Two pivotal uncertainties are selected: (1) the Iranian government’s willingness and capacity for structural reforms, and (2) the condition of the international order and the extent of external openness. Based on these two axes, four macro-scenarios are developed: Asian Leap, Development in a Cage, Structural Missed Opportunities, and Collapsing Isolation.
Results
The study concludes that localizing China’s development model in Iran is possible, but not through direct imitation or political replication. China’s success is the product of a complex combination of Confucian culture, authoritarian political order, professional bureaucracy, and gradual reforms—factors that either do not exist in Iran or function differently. Iran can adopt China’s economic, industrial, and technological components but cannot reproduce China’s political or cultural structures. Therefore, localization must be gradual, adaptive, and aligned with Iran’s institutional and social realities. The four scenarios demonstrate that only under the “Asian Leap”—the combination of domestic structural reforms and external openness—can localization be successful and sustainable. “Development in a Cage” yields slow and unstable progress; “Structural Missed Opportunities” reflects the loss of favorable international conditions;
Discussion
The objective of the study is to conduct a futures-oriented analysis of the trends and plausible scenarios for localizing China’s economic development model in Iran. To achieve this, the research uses a hybrid theoretical framework combining the developmental state theory, adaptive modernization, and critical futures studies, enabling simultaneous analysis of institutional, cultural, and future-oriented dimensions. Three core research questions guide the study: (1) Which key elements of China’s development model are transferable to Iran? (2) What structural, institutional, cultural, and geopolitical challenges hinder its localization? (3) Given major future uncertainties, what scenarios can be projected for the localization process? The research aims to go beyond descriptive or imitative interpretations and provide a comprehensive analytical outlook on capacities, constraints, and future pathways.
Conclusion
Findings indicate that several components of China’s development model hold significant potential for localization in Iran, including strategic state planning, targeted industrial policy, support for selected industries, export market diversification, digital and physical infrastructure development, and technology acquisition through joint cooperation. These components are primarily economic and technical and can be adapted to Iran’s existing capacities. However, challenges such as institutional fragmentation, governance weaknesses, social trust deficits, restricted foreign relations, oil dependency, policy instability, and weak innovation and R&D represent major obstacles. Cultural differences also matter: Confucian values such as order, discipline, hierarchy, and the prioritization of collective interest—key sources of legitimacy for development policies in China—cannot be fully replicated in Iran.