نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• ارسلان قربانی شیخ نشین ¹
• صفی الله مولوی زاده ²

¹ استاد روابط بین‌الملل، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.

² دانشجوی دکتری روابط بین الملل گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

ابتکار «کمربند و راه» چین به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین ابزار ژئواستراتژیک این کشور، هم‌زمان بستر همکاری و میدان رقابت قدرت‌های آسیایی را شکل داده است. در این میان، روابط هند و چین با وجود تداوم اختلافات مرزی و رقابت راهبردی، نشانه‌هایی از گرمایش مقطعی و تعامل اقتصادی را بروز داده است. این وضعیت، پارادوکسی ژئوپلیتیکی ایجاد کرده است. مسئله محوری این ‌است‌ که چگونه ابتکار کمربند و راه چین بر تشدید رقابت ژئوپلیتیکی و تنش‌های ‌مرزی بین هند و چین تأثیر گذاشته است؟ در پاسخ به ‌این پرسش می‌توان اظهار داشت که ابتکار کمربند و راه چین، به‌عنوان یک راهبرد هم‌ پیوندی ‌جهانی، تهدیدی برای امنیت ملی هند به شمار می‌رود و منجر به اقدامات موازنه‌ای هند، از جمله تغییر سیاست‌های دیرینه در کشمیر و ترویج ابتکارهای منطقه‌ای‌ موازی، شده است. هدف این ‎پژوهش، بررسی ‎چالش‌های ‌ناشی از حضور چین در حوزه‌های نفوذ هند و تحلیل مجموعه اقدامات موازنه‌ای هند در برابر ابتکار کمربند و راه، به منظور درک رقابت پنهان در روابط دو کشوراست. پژوهش حاضر با روش توصیفی-تحلیلی انجام شده و از چارچوب نظریه موازنه تهدید بهره می‌برد. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که ابتکار کمربند و راه چین، به‌عنوان راهبرد کلان هم پیوندی جهانی، نه‌تنها فرصت‌های اقتصادی ایجاد کرده، بلکه به رقابتی پنهان در روابط هند و چین دامن زده است. این ابتکار، با حضور فزاینده چین در حوزه‌های نفوذ هند تهدیدی جدی برای امنیت ملی دهلی‌نو به‌ شمار می‌رود. پژوهش حاضر با تمرکز بر تشدید اختلافات، اقدامات موازنه‌ای سخت و نرم هند و ادراک تهدید از رشته مروارید چین، چالش‌های ژئوپلیتیکی رقابت پنهان هند و چین در پرتو ابتکار کمربند و راه را بررسی می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• کمربند-راه
• رقابت ژئوپلیتیکی
• موازنه سازی
• اختلافات ‌مرزی
• امنیت ملی

موضوعات

• روابط بین الملل

عنوان مقاله [English]

Geostrategic Competition under the Belt and Road: Paradoxical Trends in India–China Relations

نویسندگان [English]

• Arsalan Ghurbani Shikh nashin ¹
• Safiullah Mawlavi zada ²

¹ Professor, Department of Political Science, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

² PhD student, Department of International Relations, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Introduction
The Belt and Road Initiative, launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, represents one of the most ambitious infrastructure and connectivity projects in contemporary history. Encompassing over 150 countries across six land-based economic corridors and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, the BRI aims to foster global integration through investments exceeding $1 trillion by 2027. While ostensibly focused on economic cooperation, trade facilitation, and infrastructure development, the initiative has profound geopolitical implications, reshaping power dynamics in Eurasia and beyond. China employs strategies such as "debt-trap diplomacy" and opaque contracts to expand its influence in strategic domains, including ports, energy routes, and economic corridors. For India, a traditional dominant power in the Indian Ocean and South Asia, the BRI poses an existential threat to national security and regional hegemony. Key elements like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which traverses disputed Kashmir territories, are perceived as direct violations of India's sovereignty. Ports such as Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, and Djibouti form China's "String of Pearls" strategy, challenging India's maritime superiority and encircling its strategic interests. This expansion has transformed India-China relations into a paradox of economic warming—bilateral trade reaching $128 billion in 2024—and security cooling, evidenced by border clashes in Galwan (2020) and Tawang (2022). The BRI has evolved from a developmental project into a tool for containing India, prompting New Delhi to revise its long-standing strategic neutrality toward hard balancing measures. This study examines the hidden competition underlying the apparent warming of India-China ties, focusing on how the BRI exacerbates geopolitical rivalry and border tensions. Drawing on theoretical frameworks from international relations, it analyzes China's global integration strategy and India's counter-responses, highlighting the structural instability in South Asia's security architecture.
Research Question(s)
How has China's Belt and Road Initiative influenced the intensification of geopolitical competition and border tensions between India and China?
Results
The findings reveal that the BRI has significantly intensified geopolitical competition between India and China, turning what were initially economic initiatives into broader security challenges. China’s strategy is implemented through three major types of corridors: maritime (e.g., the Maritime Silk Road in the Indian Ocean), hybrid (e.g., CPEC and the Bangladesh–China–India–Myanmar corridor), and land-based (e.g., the China–Central Asia–West Asia route). By 2025, more than 147 countries had joined the BRI, accounting for roughly one-third of global GDP and half of the world’s population. Investments reached $550 billion by early 2023, with projections estimating up to $7.5 trillion in annual additions to global GDP by 2040.The evidence also shows that BRI corridors converging on India’s periphery pose strategic implications. Along the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC)—divided into western (Ladakh), middle, and eastern sectors—China occupies 38,000 sq km of Jammu and Kashmir, while Pakistan ceded an additional 5,183 sq km to China in 1963. CPEC, valued at $62 billion, passes through Gilgit-Baltistan, facilitating the presence of more than 30,000 Chinese personnel. Confrontations at Galwan (2020) and Tawang (2022) further highlight the security implications. In the Indian Ocean, the “String of Pearls” network—including Chittagong ($2.41 billion), Kyaukpyu ($7.4 billion), Gwadar ($50.6 billion), and Hambantota ($1.47 billion)—supports China’s naval shift from “near seas defense” to “far seas protection.” Incidents such as submarine visits to Colombo (2014), naval patrols (2017), and the establishment of the Djibouti base (2016) reflect China’s expanding security footprint. Regionally, China’s influence surpasses India’s: investments in South and Central Asia each exceeded $25 billion by mid-2025, and ASEAN trade reached $468.8 billion compared to India’s $78.9 billion.
Discussion
For India, the BRI constitutes a multidimensional challenge that intersects border security, regional influence, and maritime strategy. The integration of economic corridors with military and infrastructural capabilities—particularly in CPEC and the Indian Ocean—creates overlapping layers of vulnerability. China’s growing presence in Gilgit-Baltistan challenges India’s territorial claims and reinforces Sino-Pakistani alignment, complicating India's border management along the LAC. Maritime developments similarly weaken India’s self-perception as the “net security provider” in the Indian Ocean. India’s response has involved a mix of internal, regional, and global strategies. Domestically, steps such as the revocation of Article 370 in 2019 aimed to consolidate governance in Jammu and Kashmir. Regionally, projects like Chabahar Port ($500 million), the International North–South Transport Corridor, and the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC, launched at the 2023 G20 Summit) seek to provide alternatives to BRI routes. Globally, India has strengthened its participation in the Quad, supported G7’s B3W initiative, and engaged with the EU’s Global Gateway as part of broader coalition-building. From a balance-of-threat perspective, India’s hybrid balancing—combining limited internal balancing with selective external alignments—slows China’s strategic expansion but does not eliminate underlying tensions. The long-term stability of South Asia will depend on greater transparency in BRI financing, improved border management mechanisms, and more equitable regional market access. BRI’s persistent opacity and security externalities continue to shape a competitive and uncertain regional environment.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Belt and Road Initiative has not only created economic opportunities but has fueled a hidden competition in India-China relations, posing severe threats to India's national security through territorial encroachments, maritime encirclement, and regional dominance. India's multifaceted balancing—via policy shifts in Kashmir, parallel initiatives like IMEC and Chabahar, and alliances such as the Quad—has partially preserved geopolitical equilibrium but intensified border disputes and security challenges. Findings affirm that without transparency, respect for sovereignty, and non-interference in territorial conflicts, the BRI will continue catalyzing instability in South Asia. India must sustain active balancing against Beijing, reshaping regional security architecture. Future research could explore economic impacts post-2030 or comparative analyses with other BRI-affected powers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Belt and Road
• Geopolitical Competition
• Balancing
• Border Disputes
• National Security