بحران‌های زیست محیطی جهانی تا 2030 و سناریوهای پیش‌روی ایران

Introduction
Environmental developments, such as increasing air temperature, drought, dust, pandemics, loss of underground water tables, etc., have definite consequences in the social, political, and security fields, and require the cooperation of governments, institutions, and groups at the regional level and International. This article aims to identify future environmental trends at the level of the international system; Draw possible environmental futures at the international level until 2030 and show the future scenarios of the Islamic Republic of Iran in this field. The research question is, what are the possible environmental futures at the level of the international system until 2030? The research results show that the rapid growth of green technologies, changing population patterns, the continuation of pandemics, the continuation of climate changes, and increased competition of governments due to limited resources will be the possible futures of the international system in the environmental field until 2030. The results of the research also show that the Islamic Republic of Iran will face serious challenges in the face of global environmental crises, and political and economic limitations will also be woven into these challenges. While most countries will turn to green technology in the face of these challenges, Iran's restrictions on the use of green technology will be an important driver until 2030.  The research method is future research with the technique of extrapolation of future-making trends using the "cross-impact trends" matrix.
The results of this research are:
1)            The inevitable future of governments and societies until 2030 to deal with environmental threats will be investing and benefiting from green technologies (conditional favorable scenario)
   Until 2030, governments will have no escape from moving towards green technologies to deal with climate change. Due to the consensus that exists in the world about moving towards this type of technology, this scenario is also for the Islamic Republic of Iran, both in the domestic arena and to deal with environmental challenges such as drought, air and sea pollution, and in the regional arena to deal with It will be useful and effective with challenges such as micro dust and in the global arena to deal with global challenges such as rising air temperature and the spread of panda The only challenge will be to create harmony between national, regional and international interests.
2)            Changing demographic patterns (aging, migration) will continue until 2030. (conditionally tolerable scenario)
Changing demographic patterns at the global level (aging and immigration) in terms of the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the recommendations of the theory of neoliberal institutionalism do not pose much danger to the Islamic Republic of Iran and is considered a more tolerable scenario for Iran because, firstly, the rate of aging of the country's population in comparison It is less accelerated than other countries and Iran's population will still be young until 2030 and this trend can be changed by planning
3)            Changing population patterns (urbanization growth) will continue until 2030. (unfavorable scenario)
The growth of urbanization in the world will continue until 2030, and the current trends show that this unfavorable global scenario also exists in Iran, so that the rate of urbanization in Iran has intensified. If the limited resources are not managed, this will be an unfavorable scenario for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran is in the semi-arid region of the Middle East. In the current situation, the country is facing a crisis in water resources. The result of the growth of the urban population is the increase in water and food consumption of the country, and in the situation of shortage of these resources, the country may face security crises
4)            Until 2030, pandemics will continue as a global threat. (Undesirable scenario)
 The spread of pandemics like Corona is considered an unfavorable scenario for the Islamic Republic of Iran, because in terms of the country's national interests, pandemics are a threat that, firstly, may endanger the lives of thousands of people, secondly, take a lot of resources, and thirdly, if production units are closed, services, etc. have extensive political and security consequences for the country. Theoretically, the country will need drugs and vaccines to deal with these pandemics, and since most of the big pharmaceutical companies are in Europe and America, it will be very difficult to cooperate under sanctions
5)            Until 2030, climate changes (increasing temperature, drought, etc.) will be strengthened. (adverse scenario)
 According to all estimates, climate changes such as temperature rise and drought will intensify by 2030, and this is an unfavorable scenario for Iran. According to the UN forecast, Iran will also face a chronic water shortage from 2025. The last water year in Iran was the driest in the past 52 years, and the effects of this drought clearly show themselves in the flow of water, and storage of dams, lakes, and wetlands of the country.
 
6)            By 2030, resource limitations will intensify the competition of governments in the environmental field (unfavorable scenario)
Since the Islamic Republic of Iran is in a hot and semi-arid region, continuing environmental trends such as increasing air temperature, drought, and lack of water resources is an unfavorable scenario for Iran. Among the 17 countries that have the first rank in the world regarding water crisis, 12 countries are in the Middle East and North Africa. The water crisis in Iran is an important threat to national security and therefore an important challenge for the country's foreign policy.