نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار کشاورزی و علوم پایه واحد رودهن، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، رودهن، ایران.
2 دکتری مطالعات روسیه دانشکده مطالعات جهان، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران .
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Problem and Background
The Russian invasion of Ukraine can be seen as a turning point in shaping the new global order, marked by the emergence of new trends in the energy sector. It remains to be seen how the intersection of energy supply security and demand will shift the center of gravity in the future order. This balance leads to the strengthening of which axis: unilateralism, renewed polarization, or the development of a multilateral system? In this context, examining the significant correlation between Putinism and energy over the past two decades is important, as the breakdown of this correlation should be examined as an explanatory element among the potential consequences of the war. The constituent elements of Putinism include: Putin's personality cult, sacred state security, primacy of national interests, Orthodox values, conservative and illiberal nationalism, Putin's causal role in implementing Russia's foreign policy, understanding Russia's foreign policy within the framework of its relations with the West, the long-term characteristic of Russia's geographical space, empire, and the idea of great power, and the dominant role of economic interests in Russia's foreign policy. The result of these factors has been manifested in the paradigm of individual emergence over the institution. In other words, the common denominator of the above themes lies in the centrality of the agent. Therefore, in analyzing Russia's political action, energy can be considered one of the main factors explaining the Ukraine war when combined with Putinism. The premise is that Russia always emphasizes the continuity of energy armament and will pursue an energy pivot policy to ensure its demand-driven energy security. However, this strategy will have a high opportunity cost for Russia, and new actors will also avoid creating any mutual dependencies in Russia's favor. Therefore, the research hypothesis is the weakening of Russia's political and economic position as an energy-focused power, even in the case of strengthening a multipolar order, and its attempt to maintain its position through institutional and especially regional solidarities.
Research Objective
The aim of this research is to understand the factors influencing Russia's decision-making system and its manifestation in the country's energy-driven foreign policy. This can help better comprehend the defining role of energy in shaping the future global order from Russia's perspective. This research seeks to examine how the Ukraine war impacts the configuration of the global order. In this context, investigating its intervening role in the relationship between Putinism and energy, as foundations for maintaining and reviving great power status, is of particular importance. Therefore, redefining Putinism as a model of energy-driven state-building in the transitioning global order is necessary.
Research Method
To understand Putinism in the economic framework of Russia and its connection with energy, the neorealist theory has higher explanatory power due to its emphasis on the nationalism of power resources. This approach considers the state as the main actor in the energy sector and emphasizes the dominance of national interests over energy policy. Energy weaponization and ensuring sufficient fossil fuel imports by importing countries are key dimensions of the relationship between the state and energy in the neorealist discourse. Therefore, Russia is referred to as a country that pursues "resource nationalism". In this research, in continuation of the qualitative explanation with regard to the aforementioned theoretical framework, quantitative analysis was used to examine the correlation between GDP growth and the share of military expenditures from GDP, as well as the co-movement of Russia's hydrocarbon revenues with its GDP in the period from 2000 to 2023. For this purpose, using SPSS software, the Pearson statistic was tested based on two prerequisites of quantitative nature and normal distribution of variables. Additionally, considering the focus of sanctions on Russia's oil flows in early March 2022, and the approval of the sixth sanctions package by the trans-Atlantic community, time series mean comparison tests were used to provide a more precise picture of the redefinition of this energy-driven state-building.
Report of Research Findings
The findings showed that the share of military expenditures from GDP has had a mild increasing trend, with no significant variance. In contrast, the distance between peaks and valleys in the GDP growth rate curve is significant. There is a significant and highly intense negative correlation between the two-time series. This means that, on average, as the GDP growth rate decreases, military expenditures increase. In other words, the high share of military expenditures from the economic pie has been consistently maintained, indicating considerable pressure on the country's economy from this variable.
The correlation between Russia's GDP in rubles and the federal budget share from crude oil and natural gas revenues during the period from 2012 to 2022 shows a high stickiness of the budget to hydrocarbon revenues. This is while Russia's oil and gas revenues between January and June 2023 have experienced a significant decrease compared to the same period last year.
After the approval of the sixth sanctions package against Russian crude oil in June 2022, the dependence of the European Union, United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Canada on Russian crude oil has decreased. In contrast, Russian crude oil exports to India, China, Turkey, and other countries outside the European Union and G7 have increased. Overall, the eastern orientation of Russia's energy policy is visible, at least in the short term, to counter sanctions. The interaction of Putinism and energy within the framework of the Ukraine war can be outlined in the following potential scenarios:
-Formation of a bipolar order centered on the United States and China
-Transatlantic split
-Chinese Eurasian order
-Russian victory
Conclusion
Energy is a fundamental variable in stabilizing Putin's Russia, which, in combination with Putinism, has played an effective role in shaping its foreign policy from 2000 to the present. The eastward shift of Russia's energy policy after the Ukraine war is a tactical imperative to counter sanctions, and its sustainability in the long term is challenging. This could lead to an asymmetric interdependence that goes against Russia's interests. If Russia cannot achieve its energy hegemony goal, and its energy adhesion is modulated not through structural reforms but through international coercive means, this scenario will pass through the Ukrainian crisis. Ultimately, in response to the research question, it can be said that the Ukraine war, by intensifying the divergence between Putinism and energy, has strengthened the unbalanced multipolar order centered on China.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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