بازخیزش چین و سیاست نگاه به شرق هند

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار روابط بین الملل دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشجوی دکتری روابط بین‌الملل دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.

10.22054/jrgr.2025.78929.1077

چکیده

باز خیزش و احیای مجدد چین، اهمیت یک پهنه ژئوپلیتیک  جدید، یعنی پهنه­ای که از دریای جنوبی چین تا اقیانوس هند و شرق آفریقا کشش و امتداد می­یابد را در مرکز ثقل نظم سازی منطقه­ای و بین­المللی قرار داده است. این پهنه یک پهنه « آبی » است و یقیناً تسلط هرکدام از قدرت­های بزرگ و منطقه­ای بر این پهنه می­تواند نقش مهمی در چگونگی شکل­دهی به آینده این نظم داشته باشد. چین به منظور گریز از ذهنیت یک بازیگر «قربانی» و همچنین گریز از «خفگی ژئوپلیتیکی» پس از تقریباً 500 سال تمرکز بر خشکی،  به‌تدریج در حال «برونگرایی» بیشتر و کشش قدرت و نفوذ خود به مناطق مجاور به خصوص جنوب آسیا و اقیانوس هند است. وجود چنین «تمنای راهبردی» از سوی چین، نه­تنها نظم آسیایی و آینده آن را در یک نقطه جدید " ابهام" و "عدم قطعیت" قرار داده بلکه همچنین به افزایش اصطکاک میان این کشور و هند به عنوان قدرت مستقر در منطقه جنوب آسیا و اقیانوس هند نیز منجر شده است. این مقاله تلاش دارد تا با کنکاش در تاریخ تقریباً 70 ساله اخیر برخی تحولات راهبردی در هند به خصوص تأکید بر ساخت و تداوم مفهوم "سیاست نگاه به شرق" در سال 1992 تاکنون و تبدیل آن به سیاست "شرق­گرایی فعال" در سال 2014، امکان فهم و ادراک هرچه بهتر رقابت­های موجود میان قدرت­ها و بازیگران آسیایی، تکامل سیاست­ها و راهبردهای مهار آن‌ها در برابر یکدیگر و همچنین چگونگی و جهت نظم آینده آسیایی را مورد مداقه و دقت نظر قرار داده و بیان دارد که فرایند باز خیزش چین و واکنش­های هند به این فرایند، ماهیت سیاست نگاه به شرق هند را از یک ماهیت اقتصادی به یک ماهیت امنیتی-استراتژیک تبدیل کرده است و همچنین مفهوم بنیادین سیاست خارجی و امنیتی هند یعنی مفهوم «استقلال استراتژیک» را به خصوص از طریق تنیدگی هر چه بیشتر این کشور در استراتژی هند–آرام ایالات‌متحده آمریکا مورد پرسش و ارزیابی مجدد قرار داده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

China's Rise and India's Look East Policy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Gholamali Chegenizadeh 1
  • Mohammad Zare 2
1 Associate Professor of International Relations, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran.
2 PhD, Department of International Relations, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Research Problem and Literature Review
The Asian order has seen a complete cycle of transformation in the form of the rise and fall of regional powers in the past two hundred years, and it seems that with the "resurgence" of China, especially since the end of the 1990s, it has again become susceptible to a new paradigm shift with China as the driving force, and the question of the outcome and manner of this transition has become the most important question today, both among Asian actors and US allies, and among other key players in international politics. In other words, the international system is in the "waiting" stage for a new strategic birth, and Asia is also "waiting" for a new redistribution of power, with China as the center and center. Although it seems that there is still a long way to go before this systemic transition led by China in Asia and the international system is finalized, the reality is that a kind of "sensitivity" and "concern" has arisen among all Asian players regarding this transformation. Some of these players are in the preliminary stages of determining strategy and tactics towards this new reality, some have finalized their choices, and some are redefining their past choices towards China. China’s rise to power and how regional and supra-regional powers react to this rise have placed the Asian order and its future at a new point of “ambiguity” and “uncertainty,” and have made it necessary to understand the developments that have taken place in this order and its future.
 Purpose of the Research
This article attempts to explore the history of the last 70 years of some strategic developments in India, especially the emphasis on the construction and continuation of the concept of "Look East Policy" in 1992 to date and its transformation into a policy of "Act east policy" in 2014, and to examine and carefully consider the possibility of better understanding and perceiving the existing competitions between Asian powers and actors, the evolution of policies and strategies to contain them against each other, as well as the nature and direction of the future Asian order.
Methodology
The method used in this article is a hybrid method, meaning the simultaneous use of the historical method and its completion with the descriptive-analytical method. In other words, this research has attempted to extract the required information and data by exploring the historical context of India's Look East (East and Southeast Asia) behavior and policy since independence and the continuity and developments of this grand strategy through reference to books and articles, documents, and internet resources. By analyzing the available resources, the hypothesis of this research can be examined, and the desired results can be achieved.
Results & Discussion
China's rise to power and the increase in its national capacities in Asia have caused China's role to change and transition from a "participating" actor in Asian developments to a "shaping" actor and power in Asian developments. In other words, China has transformed from a situation that could be called "reluctant realism," focused on economic growth and a narrow definition of national security and defense, to an "active realism" with a high desire and enthusiasm for creating "change." A transition that, according to many thinkers in international relations, will be not only the most important issue in international politics but also the most important driving force affecting the future of the Asian order, both in terms of security and economic dimensions. With China's increasing capabilities and efforts to become a regional power, India and Narendra Modi in 2014 transformed the Look East policy of the 1990s, which was mainly economic, into the policy and strategy of "Active Orientalism", a strategy that, in addition to paying attention and focusing on economic dimensions, also acquired important political and strategic dimensions to better contain China.
Conclusions
Since 1992, by adopting the "Look East" policy, India has gradually prepared itself for playing an important regional role and preventing strategic surprise by China. Following this, the emergence of obstacles and challenges to the policy led to a renewed effort to strengthen the previous path. This was accompanied by increased energy invested in the Look East policy, with the new "Active Orientalism" policy being placed on the agenda. Although India may not have been able to successfully contain China and manage its power-gaining efforts in the first phase of the Look East policy, what is certain is that one of the most important priorities of this country in the second phase of the Look East policy, that is, when the "Active Orientalism" policy was adopted in 2014, was to try and focus on containing China and preventing the expansion and increase of its regional influence, which has been largely achieved through the integration of this strategy into the US Indo-Pacific strategy and the expansion and strengthening of the network of strategic partnerships with East and Southeast Asian countries. More importantly, India's "active orientalism" policy coincided with the United States' increasing efforts and desire to contain China, especially in the form of Barack Obama's "rebalance" strategy and Donald Trump's "Indo-Pacific" strategy, and has led to a kind of integration and expansion of India's role in the Asia-Pacific region. In his speech at the Shangri-La Summit in Singapore in 2018, Narendra Modi emphasized this issue. Also, he stated that the Indo-Pacific region includes the coasts of Africa to the Americas, and India should play an active role in this area.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • China
  • India
  • Look East Policy
  • Act East Policy
  • Indo-Pacific Strategy
  • Strategic Partnership
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