The agency of the symbolic and the reality in critical futures studies; a case study: the fall of the Berlin Wall in East Germany 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union 1991

Mousavinia, Seyed Reza

doi:10.22054/jrgr.2026.92529.1142

The agency of the symbolic and the reality in critical futures studies; a case study: the fall of the Berlin Wall in East Germany 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union 1991

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Seyed Reza Mousavinia ^¶

Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran.

https://doi.org/10.22054/jrgr.2026.92529.1142

Abstract

Critical futures studies are "futures thinking" that seeks to "expose" the role of leaders' worldviews, discourse, and the symbolic, including myths and metaphors. By introducing the “Causal layered analysis” method, critical futures studies want to show that today could have been different and that preferred or desirable futures are not necessarily what is depicted in the official discourse. We intend to firstly deepen critical futures studies by using the “Laclau and Mouffe” discourse analysis method and secondly, by studying two historical events, namely the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union, we will criticize the layered analysis of causes in critical futures studies and show that; in addition to revealing the hidden layers of power, the critical futures method can also build an alternative future in two opposite directions. The hypothesis is: "The symbolic (myth/metaphor) in East Germany provided the basis for the discrediting of the communist discourse and the collapse of the Berlin Wall and had primary agency, but in the Soviet Union, the real (political and economic inefficiency) provided the basis for the discrediting of the communist discourse and the collapse of the symbolic in the Soviet Union and had primary agency. Accordingly, the construction of the future from the perspective of "Casual Layered Analysis, CLA" can be done by activating the fourth layer (symbolic) or activating the second layer (systematic causes). The research method in this article is the Causal layered analysis method.

Keywords

Critical Futures Studies

Alternative Futures

Layered Analysis

Berlin Wall

Collapse of the Soviet Union

Subjects

Global Relations

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