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Original Article International Relations

The U.S.–China Trade War: An Analysis of Its Future Impacts on Global Trade

Mitra Rahnejat, Morteza Bananejad

Abstract Problem Statement
The tariff war between the United States and China has emerged as one of the most significant developments in the contemporary international economic system. Since 2018, the United States has imposed a series of tariffs on Chinese imports, citing concerns related to trade imbalances, intellectual property rights, technology transfer, and national security. In response, China adopted retaliatory tariff measures against a wide range of American products. Consequently, what initially appeared to be a bilateral trade dispute evolved into a broader geo-economic confrontation with far-reaching implications for global trade? The significance of the United States–China tariff war extends beyond the economic relations of the two countries. As the world's two largest economies and major actors in international trade, any disruption in their commercial interactions inevitably affects global supply chains, international investment flows, production networks, and trade governance mechanisms. The tariff war has challenged the principles of free trade and economic liberalization that have characterized the global trading system for decades. Moreover, it has raised concerns regarding the effectiveness of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in resolving disputes between major powers and maintaining a rules-based trading order. Previous studies have primarily focused on the immediate economic consequences of the tariff war, including its effects on trade volumes, production costs, consumer prices, and bilateral trade balances. However, relatively less attention has been paid to the long-term and structural implications of the conflict for global trade. In particular, the relationship between tariff protectionism, geo-economic competition, and the emergence of neo-mercantilist policies requires further scholarly examination. This study seeks to address this gap by analyzing the future effects of the United States–China tariff war on global trade and evaluating its implications within the broader framework of international political economy.
Research Objective
The primary objective of this study is to analyze the future impacts of the United States–China tariff war on global trade and to assess the extent to which these developments are consistent with the principles and regulations of the World Trade Organization. The research also aims to examine how the tariff war contributes to structural transformations in the international trading system, including the reconfiguration of global supply chains, changes in foreign investment patterns, and the growing tendency toward economic protectionism. Furthermore, the study investigates whether the ongoing tariff war reflects a broader shift toward neo-mercantilism in international economic relations. By exploring the strategic dimensions of the conflict, the research seeks to identify potential future scenarios for global trade governance and the evolving balance between free trade and state-led economic competition.
Research Methodology
This research adopts a descriptive-analytical approach and relies on qualitative content analysis. The theoretical framework is developed based on major theories of international political economy and international trade, particularly perspectives related to economic nationalism, strategic trade policy, and neo-mercantilism. These theoretical perspectives provide the basis for identifying potential causal mechanisms linking the tariff war to structural changes in global trade.  Data were collected through extensive library research, including academic articles, books, reports published by international organizations, policy papers, official government statements, and documents issued by trade institutions. The collected materials were systematically examined and coded using qualitative content analysis techniques in order to identify recurring themes, patterns, and causal relationships. To enhance the reliability and validity of the findings, the study employs two case studies focusing on specific dimensions of the United States–China tariff war. These cases were selected to illustrate how tariff measures have influenced trade flows, investment decisions, and supply-chain restructuring. Through process-tracing and comparative analysis, the research evaluates the broader implications of these developments for the future of global trade.
Findings
The findings indicate that the tariff war between the United States and China is not merely a temporary commercial dispute but rather a strategic manifestation of geo-economic rivalry between two major powers. The conflict has significantly affected bilateral trade relations by increasing trade barriers, reducing market predictability, and generating uncertainty for businesses and investors. One of the most important consequences of the tariff war has been the reconfiguration of global supply chains. Faced with rising tariff costs and growing political risks, multinational corporations have increasingly diversified their production networks and relocated parts of their manufacturing activities to alternative destinations in Asia and other regions. This trend has accelerated the transformation of global production systems and reduced the concentration of manufacturing activities in a single country. The study also finds that the tariff war has contributed to changes in international investment patterns. Many firms have reconsidered their investment strategies in response to shifting trade regulations and geopolitical tensions. As a result, foreign direct investment flows have become increasingly influenced by political and strategic considerations rather than purely economic factors. Another significant finding concerns the growing resurgence of protectionist and neo-mercantilist policies. Both the United States and China have increasingly employed trade instruments as tools of strategic competition. Tariffs, industrial subsidies, export controls, and technology restrictions have become important mechanisms through which states seek to enhance national competitiveness and secure strategic industries. This development reflects a departure from traditional liberal trade principles and signals a broader transformation in the international economic order.
The findings further suggest that the tariff war has weakened confidence in multilateral trade institutions, particularly the World Trade Organization. The inability of existing mechanisms to effectively manage disputes between major powers has encouraged states to pursue unilateral or regional approaches to trade governance. Consequently, regional trade agreements and strategic economic partnerships have gained greater importance in shaping the future architecture of global trade.
Conclusion
The study concludes that the United States–China tariff war represents a fundamental challenge to the existing global trading system. Rather than being a short-term economic disagreement, the conflict reflects a deeper process of geo-economic competition and strategic rivalry between the world's leading economic powers. Its effects extend beyond bilateral trade and encompass global production networks, investment flows, trade governance structures, and international economic norms. The continuation of the tariff war is likely to accelerate the transition toward a more fragmented and multipolar trading system characterized by increased protectionism, regionalization, and strategic competition. Such developments may contribute to the gradual erosion of the liberal international trade order and strengthen neo-mercantilist approaches to economic policy. Therefore, the future of global trade will increasingly depend on the ability of international institutions and major powers to adapt to these emerging realities. Without effective mechanisms for dispute resolution and cooperative economic governance, the risks of prolonged trade conflicts and systemic instability are likely to increase. In this context, the tariff war between the United States and China serves as a critical indicator of the broader transformations currently reshaping the global economy and the future trajectory of international trade.

International Relations

Postcolonial Approach and International Relations in Iran

Volume 1, Issue 1, Winter 2024, Pages 1-32

Homeira Moshizade

Abstract One of the significant challenges against the mainstream of International Relations (IR) as a discipline, and even against critical approaches within the discipline, has been the one which raised by post colonialist work. Post colonialism, as a critical approach mainly inspired by post structuralism, Antonio Gramsci’s idea of hegemony, and the Indian School of Subaltern History, as well as some anti-colonialist work such as those of Frantz Fanon (1368 [1989]; 2535 [1976]) and Albert Memmi (2536 [1977]), initially emerged in literary critique and social studies to find its way later into IR too. Its critique of Eurocentrism and dichotomies such as West/non-West and its focus on the relations among race, class, and gender (see Chowdhury and Nair 2002) has been taken to be a challenge against a discipline mostly concentrated on international security based on great powers’ relations. 
While, in the last two decades, dozens of academic articles and books in IR have been marked by an interest in postcolonial themes and approach, they have not been much welcomed by the Iranian community of IR scholars. Post-colonialism has been discussed in only two articles in Persian academic journals of IR (Darroudi and Salavati 1393 [2014]; Haji-Yosefi and Ghaebi 1397 [2018]) and a third article has appeared in an Iranian journal but in English (Adib-Moghaddam 2019). In Iran as a country where Western scholarship in social sciences in general and in IR in particular has been questioned for decades and the fact that most IR scholars look for more endogenous and home-grown theories in order to avoid what post colonialism refers to as Eurocentrism, one expects more or less enthusiastic embracing of postcolonial work.  This is not, however, the case. While dominant Eurocentrism is in the opposition to Iranian IR scholars’ interest in developing home-grown theories and approaches on the basis of endogenous experiences, in its current form, IR in Iran is actually somehow based on more or less Eurocentric assumptions.
This article is an attempt to show the potential contributions of post colonialism to International Relations in Iran. Post colonialism with ideas such as the significance of imperialism in the construction of both the West and the East; the role of colonial practices in the constitution of race, gender, and class all around the globe; the significance of Orientalism (see Said 1985) as a discourse representing the East and the Islamic world as an inferior Other with a culture, society, and history in opposition to Western “rational” Self and the construction of an image of the East as a childish, sentimental,  backward, and barbarian entity (Ashcroft, Griffiths, and Tiffin 1998); the Eurocentric nature of most both academic and public knowledge and understandings; etc., have much relevance to IR as a discipline.
Furthermore, post colonialism seeks to avoid Eurocentrism and Orientalism with alternative narratives of international life with an emphasis on the voice of the subaltern -even if this is itself problematized by some postcolonial authors (see Spivac 1994 [1985]) as well as through contrapuntal readings of the texts produced at foreign policy level, international institutions, or even by IR scholars (see Bilgin 2016). The agency of non-Western subjects in the history of international relations and international political economy is another contribution of postcolonial scholarship that not only reveals their often neglected roles, it can also be a history of their resistance as a form of power.
Post colonialism, thus, goes beyond Eurocentric dichotomies that regard everything from security to power to history and state from a binary-based perspective and limit agency to that of the Western agents.
It is assumed here that becoming more familiar with postcolonial contributions to International Relations, may lead to a change in some of the existing assumptions and understandings of world politics dominant in IR community in Iran. Post colonialism can help us question some of the taken for granted presumptions such as the superiority of realism and structuralism perspective in explaining international relations or the existence of a region called the Middle East. It can lead to alternative views with more focus on the role of race, class, and gender in international life. And, last but not the least, it may help us recognize the existence of a sort of Orientalism in reverse in some IR scholarship. 
Post colonialism, thus, by underlining the agency of non-western actors and the hybrid nature of all phenomena including the East and the West, may help enrich international studies and research Iran.

International Relations

Examination and Analysis of the Role of Ethnic Politics in the Political Structure of Contemporary Afghanistan

Volume 1, Issue 1, Winter 2024, Pages 201-240

Morteza Noormohammadi,, Hadisa Ahmadi

Abstract Afghanistan is one of the countries that has a heterogeneous and multi-ethnic structure, and the problem of ethnicity and ethnicity is one of the great harms of unity and the source of differences on the social structure of the Afghan society, and it has been one of the serious obstacles to national cohesion, convergence and political development. has been in this country. Of course, in Afghanistan since its establishment as an independent country (1747 AD), attention has been paid to this phenomenon, and in order to curb it in different periods and governments, considering the diversity and characteristics of Afghan ethnicities, on the one hand, and on the other hand, looking at the conditions governing the region and interests The national and political systems of this country have engaged in ethnic politics. The political structure in Afghanistan is based on ethnic politics. The structure of this country has always depended on ethnic politics. The main goal of this research is to analyze and evaluate the mono-ethnic policy in the political structure, while this country has ethnic diversity.
Research background
 Various researches and articles have been written about ethnic politics, political structure and cultural and social diversity in Afghanistan, which can generally be examined in the following categories.

The phenomenon of ethnocentrism is a negative phenomenon which was examined on the axis of Afghanism (Pashtunism) and the ethnic policies of Afghanistan's rulers were formed "unsuccessfully and based on nervousness", which can be seen in the article "Political Development of Afghanistan and the Inhibiting Role of Ethnicism" In its formation", written by Mohammad Ali Mir Ali and Mohammad Mohsani, he pointed out.
Due to the severity of religious, linguistic and especially ethnic differences between "all the ethnic groups of Afghanistan", he considers that the talk of the ethnic politics of Afghanistan's rulers was mostly the result of "foreign element's intervention". In this regard, the thesis of Hafizullah Hafiz is entitled "Comparative study of the role of Iran and Saudi Arabia in the management of the conflict in Afghanistan (2001-2017).
Regarding the political structure of Afghanistan position, we can refer to the article "The position of ethnic groups in the formation of the political structure of Afghanistan's governance after 2001 AD", written by Kyomarth Yazdan-Panah and Seyed Jalal Ahmadi, which mostly deals with the position of ethnic groups in the republic period. While ethnic politics in the form of unity in plurality existed in a weak and intense form during this period.
Regarding the solution to Afghanistan's crises, the research entitled "The path to ethnic problems in Afghanistan" by Barfield is of the opinion that the existing solution is to transition from the crisis and decentralize the power structure and give more powers to local governments. While one of the main factors in crises is the monopoly of the political structure by governments.

This research is looking for accurate and useful reports about the role of ethnic politics in the political structure, and on the other hand, it aims to focus more on ethnic politics in the field of ethnic politics in the contemporary period.
The basic question raised in this article. It is: How is the role of ethnic politics in the political structure of Afghanistan analyzed?
Sub questions

In what period of Afghanistan's rulers was the ethnic identification model implemented?
The model of ethnic pluralism was carried out during which period of Afghanistan's rulers?
The model of unity in ethnic plurality, during which period of Afghanistan's rulers, has continued to happen?

The declarative and practical policies of dealing with ethnicity in Afghanistan in the contemporary period and different governments have similar and different characteristics and approaches, and in addition, the shortcomings of the ruling governments, sometimes with the resistance of the traditional society and tribe. They faced Afghanistan.

From the period of Abdali, Abdul Rahman, Habibullah, Nader, Hashim, Dawood and the Taliban in order to lead and control it, they used the approach of ethnic identification models and models based on Afghanism (Pashto) and even though they institutionalized Afghan nationalism.
From the era of Amanullah, Shah Mahmoud, Zahir Shah, Nur Mohammad Taraki, Hafizullah Amin, Birak Karmel and Najibullah, in this regard, according to the models and models of pluralism that led to the equality of ethnic groups. they moved. Although they had significant achievements, traditional values prevented it and finally left the playing field for the other party.
Finally, the Daud Khan Republic and the government of Hamed Karzai and Mohammad Ashraf Ghani emphasized on the model and models of unity at the same time as plurality. But none of these rulers were successful in this move.

This research is among developmental and applied research. According to the type and topic of the research, the collection of research data is based on documentary and library methods.
The findings of this research show that the political structure in Afghanistan has always been based on ethnic policies and the ruling Afghan (Pashto) people. In other human societies, people have power from governments. But in the society of Afghanistan, which is a very traditional society, which has power based on religion, religion, ethnicity, and even tribe. In this country, all interactions, relations, political and social affairs are formed based on religion, ethnicity, and the continuity of governments is in the shadow of ethnicity and religion. On the other hand, the rulers of statesmen; They have also tried in many ways to reduce the influence of ethnicity and religion and to change the bilateral relations between ethnic groups, tribes and governments and bring them to the benefit of the central government.

International Relations

Middle East Regional Order in the Light of Iran-Saudi Relations; Describing the Past, Explaining the Present and Predicting the Future

Volume 1, Issue 1, Winter 2024, Pages 67-93

Amin Moeini, Ebrahim Mottaghi

Abstract Explaining the formation and evolution of "regional order" patterns and presenting a realistic vision of their future requires a multi-level analysis; At the domestic level, it is emphasized that, to understand the content and complexity of socio-political developments, as well as to identify the factors affecting the decision-making of political elites. At the regional level, it is important to investigate why and how the patterns of inter-governmental cooperation and conflict are formed, and at the international level, the relations of regional governments with great powers and foreign factors affecting security campaigns are of interest. Nevertheless, the necessity of deep analysis has led the current research to find a variable that has a significant impact on the future of regional order patterns and is one of the main drivers of their transformation. The findings of the research indicate that the "security structure" of the Middle East has become fluid and dynamic, and unlike the past when great powers were the irreplaceable determinants of regional order patterns, in the future, regional campaigns will have an impact. They will have a significant impact on the security structure and patterns of regional order. Meanwhile, the trends of cooperation and conflict in the security relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia as the two main powers of the region are of significant importance. The main purpose of the research is to explain the patterns of regional order by focusing on the patterns of conflict and cooperation between Iran and Saudi Arabia as the two main players in the security environment of the Middle East.
The studies which have investigated the security relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia fall into three general categories. The first category is researching that deal with the root of this conflict. In the meantime, many researchers have considered the security conflict between these two actors as a result of structural conflicts and ideological rivalries (Hafiznia 2014, Romina 2014). Some others consider it to be the result of security threats from both sides, and clearly consider the policy of balancing threats and accumulating power as the only available option for the conflicting parties (Moslinejad 1396, Barzegar 1382). Most of the researches in this category analyze the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia based on a realist or constructivist view. While these two schools, despite having the appropriate capabilities to analyze international relations, are unable to understand many complexities and hidden layers governing the behavior patterns of states such as the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia. The second category includes studies that consider environmental factors and the role of foreign actors to be the main factor in the formation and continuation of the conflict between the two countries (Ghoble 2019, Simons 2003). Researches of this type, which believe in the influence and penetration of the great powers in the security structure of the regions, have presented the Middle East as a subordinate system, where the great powers can direct the selection and priority of the regional actors and from this be effective on the regional order. Such a formulation of the position of the great powers and the security structure of the Middle East, although it sheds light on some characteristics of the Middle East, but it goes astray since it ignores the efforts of regional actors to change the rules of the game and hides the character of the transformation process. goes. The third group is mainly influenced by Barry Buzan's regional security theory and the thinkers of the Copenhagen security school, focusing on the level of regional analysis, examining the impact of security campaigns at the national and regional levels on security structures and regional order patterns are paying attention in the meantime, a research entitled "Research future of political relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and its consequences on the regional order" which was carried out with the method of scenario writing without observing the principles of future research and scenario writing, only to express six scenarios of the regional order related to the future. The relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia has been discussed (Thaniabadi et al., 2019). At the same time, scenario writing is based on the explanation of trends and the identification of drivers of change. Leading research is in the third category in terms of research approach and its innovation can be seen in research methodology and findings.
By focusing on the security relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and considering other components of the security structure of the Middle East from 1979 until now, the current research answers the question of what effect the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have had on the patterns of regional order in the Middle East. Is? The research in the framework of the "Copenhagen Security School" is based on the hypothesis that the mutual security relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have a decisive effect on the future of the regional order in the Middle East and the continuation of conflict or the creation of cooperative mechanisms in the security relations of the two countries can be considered as He considered two main drivers of transformation.
The research method is process tracing. Process tracing is a method based on which analysts identify causal processes that link explanatory variables to effects (George and Bennett, 2005). The advantage of this method is that, in addition to explaining the current situation of the Middle East regional order, it is also useful in identifying the trends and events affecting its future. In the leading research, the use of this method is aimed at explaining the trends of conflict and cooperation in the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which have led to the transformation of the patterns of regional order in the Middle East.
The relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the post-revolution era were formed based on the leaders' perception of the existing and perceived threats and the semantic components governing the political system of the two countries. Depending on the environmental conditions, the internal developments and the mentality of the leaders appeared in periods of competition combined with cooperation with the aim of managing regional crises, in a period with strong signs of regional competition, and in periods such as the Arab revolutions of 2011, an intensifying conflict of a nature Proxy and focused on the escalation of the crisis. In recent years, the competitive patterns of Iran and Saudi Arabia have continued based on the accumulation of power and the balance of threats and have left a deep impact on the structure of the regional order. In these years, the expansion of the geography of the conflict to different Arab countries has practically made Iran the most important threat to Saudi Arabia and its regional allies, so that in order to confront Iran, they have gone towards cooperation and alliance with their old enemy, Israel. The nature of the current conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia is such that its resolution takes time and requires a change in the foreign policy and even cultural approach of the two countries; In fact, the ending of the conflict and the formation of relations based on regional cooperation patterns require substantial changes in the goals and regional behavior of the two actors. As long as the identity components and the semantic system governing the foreign policy of these two actors continue, despite the reduction of cross-sectional tensions, there is no clear prospect for the formation of real patterns of interaction. Reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia in Yemen and Syria, along with the return of the JCPOA parties to the nuclear agreement, can reduce the inflammation in the region and lead the two countries to reduce tension. The return of Syria to the Arab League and the establishment of Saudi Arabia's relationship with the government established in this country, along with Iran's efforts to stop the war in Yemen, is also the beginning of the end of the Cold War that governs the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The evidences and signs indicate the desire of the two countries to manage the conflicts in the region. But what is certain is that the establishment and continuation of order based on participation in the security structure of the Middle East requires the fundamental resolution of conflicts; Conflicts, many of which arise from the nature of these two actors.

International Relations

The UAE - Israel Relationship in the Light of the Abraham Agreement and its Impact on the Neighboring Relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran

Volume 1, Issue 2, Spring 2024, Pages 121-146

Majid Abbasi, Marzieh Chaharmahali Esfahani

Abstract As two neighboring countries, Iran and the UAE have maintained relatively stable relations since the independence of the UAE in 1971. Except for the dispute over the triple Islands in the Persian Gulf and the UAE's pursuit of resolving this through international forums, there has been no significant tension in the relations between the two. The UAE's foreign policy has always been cautiously towards Iran and the country avoided a direct confrontation with its big northern neighbor. A new generation of UAE political leaders in 2011 began charting a more proactive approach to reshaping the Middle East security landscape in the country's favor, often focusing on countering the threat posed by the Muslim Brotherhood and other Sunni Islamist groups. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan of Abu Dhabi was and continues to be central to this approach. Although he holds no formal position in the UAE federal government, he has consolidated his role as Abu Dhabi’s, and indeed the UAE’s, de facto leader since his 2003 elevation as successor to the role of crown prince of Abu Dhabi. (Crisis Group, 2021) With the geopolitical changes in the Middle East, UAE leaders have seized the opportunity to influence on regional equations. In this regard, the UAE attempt to strengthen national security and enter into regional and extra-regional alliances and coalitions. For instance, it could be mentioned the active presence of the country in Yemen's war. Another important issue that should be noted is the endorsement of Abraham's contract with Israel which has led to the normalizing relations process between them. A significant issue that should be kept in mind is that with the signing of the agreement, Israeli has accessed to the security complex of the Persian Gulf, and this is considered a threat to Iran and its national interests. The purpose of this present research is to investigate the impact of the Abraham Agreement on the neighborly relations between Iran and the UAE. Using descriptive qualitative method and applying the two concepts of balance of power and strategic hedging, this study has analyzed the relations between theU AE and Israeli and also its consequences on the neighboring relations with Iran. The term “hedging” is widely used in the academic and policy literature. However, its casual usage has created conceptual confusion because its meanings is varying greatly. Most of the time, practitioners and policy researchers consider the term (hedging)parallel to “balancing,” remarking it to be an antonym of “engagement,” which recourses to an effort to create a cooperative relationship through political, military, economic, or social means. This “engagement-hedging” insight illustrates one’s political status: engagement emphasizes cooperation as a primary objective, whereas hedging is an insurance policy in the event engagement fails. (Koja,2018:636) Strategic hedging is a relative and incomprehensible concept that is innately difficult to quantify. Tessman and Wolfe have already noted to three primary resources that generate strategic hedging; economic capacity, military power and central government. (Salman& Geeraerts,2014: 3) The other concept is “balancing power”. Schweller offers the following definition of balancing centered on military capabilities “Balancing means the creation or aggregation of military power through either internal mobilization or the forging of alliances to prevent or deter the state occupation and domination by a foreign power or coalition(Schweller,2016:4). The term balance of power adverts to the distribution of power capabilities of rival states or alliance. The balance of power theory holds that when one state or alliance mounts its power or applies it more aggressively; threatened states will increase their own power in response, often by forming a counter-balancing coalition.(legalserviceindia.com).
 Being aware of its geopolitical position and mentality that there is an objective threat against the country's national security from Iran, the UAE entered into an interaction with the IRI as part of a "hedging strategy" to deal with this threat. In fact, the country considered Iran to be its biggest regional threat, and there were sources of mistrust and tensions between the two sides, including over the triple islands, the nuclear issue, the ballistic missile program, and accusations against Iran of inciting the political sentiments of Shiites in the UAE.
In line with its dual policy of strategic hedging and balancing, the UAE has taken many defense and military measures in the past years. The UAE has quietly established its own independent defense force. Over the decades, this country has provided a relatively small but sophisticated military possess such as air force, special forces and offensive and defensive weapons with advanced technology. (El-Dessouki & Rafik Mansour,2020) On August 13, 2020, Israel and the UAE announced the normalization of relations between the two sides and the establishment of a new relationship. Contrary to the normative historical view of the Arab world regarding Israel, the UAE considers the regime neither an enemy nor a threat to the stability of the region. According to the worldview of Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the main threats to the UAE and its allies are the expansionist Iran and transnational political Islamists. In return, the UAE considers Israel a strong regional power, which has shared the view and it is willing to work alongside the UAE against regional enemies. Therefore, the official alliance with Israel has the strategic logics. (Rahman, 2021:2) Telaviv and Abu Dhabi consider Iran and Turkey as a threat to national security. These possible threats from Tehran and Ankara are reinforced by Washington's plan to reduce its military presence in the Middle East. The normalization agreement publicly and officially brings Israel and the UAE together, which will bring its own set of complex challenges and potential risks (Guzansky & Heistein, 2020). One of the important components of the Ibrahim agreement, although not specifically explained, is increased security cooperation against regional threats, especially from Iran and its proxies. It is important to mention that Israel and the UAE have had security relations since the past, but this agreement exposes them (COOK, 2020). As mentioned, one of the important articles of the Ibrahim contract is the security cooperation between the two sides that will probably create challenges for Iran in terms of security issues in the future. By having the support from USA, Israel enjoys a relative military superiority in the Middle East. However, drones, missiles and new cyber capabilities and other technologies may reduce this gap in the coming years. (Sachs & Huggard, 2020:12)
In this research, we sought to find an answer to this question; what effect will the strengthening of relations between the UAE and Israeli have on the neighboring relations of this country with Iran? And the hypothesis that was raised in relation to the question was that the consolidation of the relations between the UAE and Israeli after the Ibrahim Agreement would cause the influence and indirect presence of Israeli in the vital security environment of Iran and as a result, changing in the balance of threats. It will intensify the skepticism of the neighborly relations of the parties. The findings of the research show that the security aspect of this cooperation is dangerous for Iran's national interests because it opens a foothold for Israel to the Persian Gulf region near the borders of Iran. Besides, the close intelligence and cyber cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Telaviv in the region could endanger the national security of Iran. Cyber-attacks on infrastructure, while being inexpensive, could be very dangerous.

International Relations

Global Political Economy and Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Volume 1, Issue 2, Spring 2024, Pages 1-41

Hossein Pourahmadi, Behrouz Asaadi

Abstract Regarding to the International System evolutions, Recognition and Understanding of the Relationship Between Global Political Economy and Foreign Policy of Iran Has Become More Important. Despite the Numerous Studies Which Have Been Done in This Field, but considering the Widespread Evolutions, it is important the Explanation of the interactive and circular Relationship between these two categories, as well as the impact of the global structure of production on the Iran’s foreign policy. From this Perspective, It Seems That Cox 's Opinions Are Appropriate for Understanding these Evolutions and the Relation Between These Categories. The Present Essay, while assuming the relationship between global political economy and the foreign policy of Iran, Raises This Key Question of What Effect Does Global Political Economy on the functioning of Foreign Policy of Iran?
According to Cox's opinions, the Global Political Economy by creating the global chain of value production, and based on Iran's position in the global production structure, with its impact on the economic system and the configuration of the state, has had a fundamental impact on the foreign policy action in Iran, and has always met the requirements has imposed on. From this point of view, the foreign policy which interacts with domestic socio-economic structures on the one hand, and interacts with the world system on the other hand, is strongly influenced by the global political economy, which has created a global production structure. Hence, the Purpose of this Paper is to study and Explain How the Global Political Economy Affects the Foreign Policy in Iran, So, it Forms an Exploratory Research Based On a Critical Methodological Approach and a Reproductive Strategy.
in this framework, we tried to study and explain the relationship between the global political economy and foreign policy of Iran, by using the Cox's critical approach and recognizing the dominance and hegemony in the political economy of the world. Based on the findings of the research, the global political economy has always imposed requirements on Iran based on the needs of the global production structure and Iran's position in the global chain of value production, which has led to extensive changes in Iran's foreign policy action. In other words, in order to reproduce the economic system and secure the interests and benefits of the dominant classes, the state has been influenced by the global political economy and has continuously adjusted and directed its actions, especially the foreign policy, in order to respond to global requirements.
turning to the discussions and as a result of the changes in the global political economy, a global production structure and in other words, a global value production chain has been formed in which all countries have a certain place. In addition, Iran is located in another special infrastructure named the global oil production network, which has created special requirements for it. Thus, Iran has been defined as a major producer of energy and a consumer of consumer products in the global structure of production. The process of globalization as the dominant trend of global political economy has led to a new formulation of interactions between governmental and non-governmental actors at different levels and fields. By increasing interdependence, the importance of interactive actions and the functionalization of diplomacy in the field of economy, has made necessary coordination and adaptation with global economic trends and has led to changes in foreign policy strategies and tools. Therefore, Iran's foreign policy, while accepting the established order and global political economy trends, and understanding the importance of economic variables in foreign policy, non-governmental actors, competitiveness and international trade, with changes in its tools and policies, is trying to adopt an active and dynamic and development oriented foreign policy, in line with global trends.
Although it seems that despite of cooperation and coordination of Iran's foreign policy with global trends, due to the lack of accurate understanding of global Evolutions, foreign policy action has not been able to adapt to the global political economy. This issue has led to the deepening of Iran's position in the global production structure and can confront Iran with several crises. In the meantime, no specific action has been taken by Iran to change this position. This problem is partly caused by the needs of the government, the ideology ruling the system and the interests and tendencies of the dominant productive social forces in Iran, and partly caused by the unwillingness of the dominant forces in the global political economy (especially the West) to structural changes in Iran, Therefore, they have prevented the possibility and opportunity of structural changes in Iran with different methods. As a result, Iran has almost been excluded from the process of globalization. Hence, Iran's position will be in more danger if it does not pay attention to the requirements of global structures. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt appropriate policies, while responding to global requirements, to stabilize and improve Iran's position.

International Relations

The International-to-Come: A New Formulation of Resistance in International Relations (A Case Study of the People's Climate Movement)

Volume 1, Issue 2, Spring 2024, Pages 81-120

Somayeh Khodakhah Azar, Seyed Masoud Mousavi Shafaee

Abstract The world is undergoing rapid and profound changes. These transformations have occurred and emerged in various aspects and levels. in the post-Cold War era and the beginning of the 21st century, Greater opportunities have emerged for the resistance movements in shaping events and activism for non-state actors in international relations. So, the need for the production of literature and the authoring of new works on these topics has been felt more than ever before. However, there is still a noticeable gap in most scientific and academic writings about subjects like "resistance" in its contemporary dimensions. In this regard, this research aims to show whether it is possible to present a novel framework of resistance in international relations in the context of history of the present of international relations? What are the characteristics of this framework of resistance, and what will they be? The argument of this research is that in the present and the future that is unfolding, resistance in the form of a collective and international linkage, with the possibility of being in common without being common is facilitated among its actors; a form of “the International-to-come”. In this regard, the concept of collective agency is considered, which does not imply uniformity or homogenization, but rather a shared purpose without erasing the distinct characteristics of different groups and individuals. This research, based on the approach of Jacques Derrida, examines and analyzes resistance in international relations. The method employed in this study is a qualitative case study. In this regard, the "People's Climate Movement" will be investigated.
Based on the proposed content, this research is a modest attempt to examine resistance in the contemporary era. It aims to strengthen dialogues and, consequently, foster interdisciplinary discussions about the theoretical, inclusive, and international dimensions of this concept. Given that orthodox perspectives and narrow views in mainstream international relations hinder such reflections, this research seeks to take a different path and analyze the issue through an interdisciplinary approach. Therefore, it delves into the examination and analysis of resistance in international relations, drawing upon the approach of Jacques Derrida.
This research delves into the important aspects of Derrida's views that are relevant to the present study. Specters of Marx is a 1993 book by Jacques Derrida. According to Derrida, the spirit of Marx holds even greater relevance in the aftermath of the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the decline of communism. With the demise of communism, the specter of communism begins to reappear on Earth. Derrida seeks to inherit from Marx, not communism itself, but rather the philosophy of responsibility and Marx's spirit of radical critique. In his work, Derrida identifies ten plagues of the global system and presents an account of the emergence of a new form of activism called the "New International". This research emphasizes two concepts in Derrida's approach to analyzing resistance in international relations: the "New International" and "Spectrality".
International activism, as a specter-like action, is constantly evolving and changing. Therefore, it represents a collective framework that does not lead to uniformity or homogenization, but rather signifies a shared action based on the diverse characteristics of groups and individuals. International activism forms a bond of kinship, shared suffering, and hope. Specters of "the International-to-come" do not allow us to forget that any imposed unity carries within it a multiplicity. Essentially, anything left out of the defining process returns as a spectral presence in a different form. Therefore, "the International-to-come" lacks a coherent center and a regulated periphery. It is a collection of diverse and uncoordinated struggles and organizations that prioritize points of connection with common objectives. They are of the nature of Communitas (being in common without being common). In accordance with Derrida's interpretation, "the International-to-come" must leave an empty space for unknown and anonymous activism. This act of leaving an empty space signifies a form of indeterminacy and anonymity that implies hospitality for what is yet to come in the future.
In a specific case study within the research, the "People's Climate Movement" was examined. The People's Climate Movement was a global climate movement that took place in over 400 cities worldwide in 2014 and has continued to evolve. It is important to note that this uprising is not the ultimate representation and embodiment of resistance in the form of " International-to-come". Rather, it serves as an example that, if we want to see how "the International-to-come" can manifest in the real world, this movement demonstrates a part of its shaping and formulation. Within the research's topic and theoretical framework, the People's Climate Movement can be understood as a metaphorical call to accept the responsibility of ancestral heritage by the survivors and strive for reform through reliance on the revelations of the specter of resistance. The "people," as the primary center of the climate movement, play a crucial role in protests, global demonstrations, whistleblowing, coordination among various institutions, and exerting pressure on governments and international organizations for collaboration, it is evident in the example of the climate movement's key role in the United Nations Climate Conference in 2014. This ultimately led to the Paris Agreement on climate change. On the other hand, the People's Climate Movement fulfills the role of the promised activism of past generations. This movement represents a resistance born out of the present, and it is not waiting for the appearance of a promised messiah. Furthermore, it does not hesitate to seize any opportunity for activism, ranging from large-scale gatherings to unconventional and occasionally controversial actions, such as spraying paint on valuable artworks and buildings, and other similar acts. These instances allude to the hidden capacities of the movement in the realm of resistance, which may exist like a specter in our world, seeking an opportunity to emerge based on the exigencies of time and place. Furthermore, the movement has charted a long-term trajectory, namely the fight against climate change, but it restricts the short-term actions of leadership.
Ultimately, the activists of "the International-to-come" do not seek to seize power or dominate the future and the prevailing discourse in international relations. Instead, they demand recognition of their concerns and anxieties.

International Relations

Pathology of the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Public Diplomacy

Volume 1, Issue 3, Autumn 2024, Pages 81-146

Ali Karami, Afshin Mottaghi Destanaei

Abstract Introduction
Traditionally, public diplomacy has been centered around collecting and disseminating information. On the one hand, diplomats must collect information about how foreign audiences perceive the actions of a particular government, and on the other hand, they must assess the nature of relations between the two countries and identify opportunities or threats of bilateral cooperation. In this regard, the most important obstacles and problems facing the public diplomacy cycle are:
 
Chart 1: Obstacles and problems of the public diplomacy cycle
However, throughout history, technological advances have always impacted the field of diplomacy and public diplomacy and often transformed the structure of international relations. Consider the emergence of the telegraph in the nineteenth century, an advancement that transformed diplomatic communications by drastically reducing the time needed to exchange messages between countries. This transition accelerated diplomatic negotiations and created new dynamics in power relations and information management. Similarly, the emergence of the Internet in the late twentieth century further transformed diplomacy and enabled instant global communications and rapid dissemination of information. While the Internet revolutionized how we communicate, work, and access information, artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming how we live, work, and interact with technology. AI is a branch of computer science that aims to develop intelligent machines that can perform tasks typically requiring human intelligence. AI systems use algorithms and deep learning models to learn from large datasets and improve accuracy over time. AI can be divided into two primary types: narrow or weak AI and general or strong AI. Narrow AI is designed to perform specific tasks, while general AI is intended for human-like thinking and reasoning. Like the Internet, AI has the potential to transform society in ways we cannot yet predict. Both technologies have the power to create new industries and change existing ones. As we examine the potential and challenges of integrating AI into diplomacy, it is important to note that technology has continuously acted as a catalyst for change in this field and established a precedent for AI's potential role in shaping the future of international relations.
Research background
Table 1: Literature Review
No       Authors Title
1          Walker AI and the Future of Public Diplomacy
2          Trabelsi Loeb   A Revolution in Diplomacy with AI: Crossing New Frontiers for a Peaceful Tomorrow
3          Nweiran           AI and Public Diplomacy
4          Franke AI Diplomacy
5          Jafarova           AI and Digital Diplomacy
6          Williams and Otto        AI as a Tool of Public Diplomacy: The Relationship between the United States and Iran
7          Konovalova     AI and Diplomacy: Challenges and Opportunities
8          Duberry           AI Diplomacy: A Vision for Future Multilateralism?
(Reference: research findings, 2024)
Purpose
Accordingly, the present study aimed to analyze and examine the role of AI in public diplomacy. The main research question is: what are the strengths, weaknesses, as well as opportunities and threats of the widespread implementation of AI in public diplomacy?
Method
This study used a SWOT analysis and data was collected through review of theoretical literature and previous research. The SWOT method shown below was used to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of AI in public diplomacy. This study uses the SWOT components as the four main categories of analytical subjects. The themes and patterns in the four main categories are processed mostly through an inductive analysis of the findings. A total of 18 research papers were selected for the final analysis in this study.
Findings
The main findings resulting from reviewing and studying 18 research papers listed in the above table have been classified into categories of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the table below:
Table 2: Findings classified using SWOT
Findings           Beneficial for achieving goals   Harmful for achieving goals
Internal Strengths:

Reinforcing decision making
Crisis management and conflict resolution
Language translation and cultural understanding
Generating acceptable responses
Self-construction
Offering personalized responses
Providing immediate responses
Cost efficiency
Data analysis
Diplomatic services Weaknesses:
Lack of relevant data in countries
Costs of actively collecting data for measurement
Institutional corruption and instability
Lack of deep understanding of quality issues in response evaluation
Risk of bias and discrimination
Lack of higher-order thinking skills
Initial costs
Privacy of data
Complexity

External           Opportunities:

Digital labor and outsourcing for employment
Transparent and corruption-free governmental processes
Passive data collection
Leadership in public diplomacy domain
Customization
Expansion Threats:
Bias in AI algorithms
Security concerns
International cooperation and standardization
Cyber security and information warfare
Skills gap
Oversight challenges
Job loss and labor displacement

 
Conclusion
AI software can be used to better understand where narratives take root, helping public diplomacy practitioners know where to focus attention and resources to counter misinformation and hostile influence campaigns. AI's data collection capabilities can help diplomats analyze how their country's interests and actions are portrayed in foreign media, and then local information and outreach efforts to improve penetration. AI-based analysis of social media platforms can also assess the impact of content produced through public diplomacy. In addition to external analytical capabilities, AI tools can simplify internal datasets and global events through the analysis of diplomatic documents sent by embassies, media summaries, briefings, and even diplomats' analysis of local information. Ministries of foreign affairs, ambassadors, and diplomats can use AI tools like chatbots, GPT-3, or Anthropic to analyze news coverage about their home country, gaining insights into topics of discussion reflecting the country's changing political, social, and economic outlook, some potential trends observable over the long term, periodic shifts and changes in media priorities influenced by live geo-political dynamics and events. With modern AI technology, voice mimicry is also possible. Diplomatic channels may be monitored by other countries' intelligence agencies and potentially criminal groups that can access specialized technologies like eavesdropping. Often hidden data (photos, videos, audio recordings) and even fabricated news that an ordinary person could in no way verify their authenticity appear in the media. Such manipulations pose a serious threat to social stability and influence public opinion. AI technologies can also be used in political struggles against rival forces. Diplomats' readiness for change and understanding and use of AI technologies is important. This highlights the need for interdisciplinary educational programs combining innovative thinking, big data management, and machine learning to strengthen effective collaboration between diplomats and technical experts.

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